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this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2023
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What gamble exactly? I'm not sure what you're talking about. This is simply the pattern that experts predict will develop in the future
The gamble is:
But on the other side...
So we roll the dice and hope the hypothesis 1) is a net gain over the fact 2). That if we sacrifice well-being of 10% of population (in this case children), a larger percentage will be better off in the future.
As far as things go now I'm not too optimistic.
Game theory of viral spread. Viruses are more likely to become less deadly, rather than more, as there's a selective pressure on viruses to make someone as sick as possible (and spread the disease) WITHOUT killing them. It's why the Spanish flu was deadlier in 1920 that the decendant that you caught in your last bout of flu (most likely).
COVID was a pandemic, now it's endemic, and less deadly with every reinfection.
It's not fucking endemic, words have meanings. For endemic you need steady, predictable number of infections and we don't have that. With covid we have rampant mutations and wave after wave of poorly tracked upticks. "Endemic" became a buzzword excuse to drop restrictions and get people to spend money and work on-site again and has nothing to do with the actual epidemiology of covid.
And for fucks sake even if I agreed that the "endemic" status is debatable one thing is not: COVID is worse at each reinfection in an individual, the persistent damage is cumulative (did you know you can have long covid on top of a previous long covid?).
And uh oh I didn't catch a flu in years. Yes, flu is bad too. It leaves lingering symptopms too. But how many people catch it two or three times within 2 years? Yeah, not many. With covid no one bats an eye that someone went through 3 bouts of potentially deadly, potentially disabling disease within 2 years. We're going to face massive healthcare problems a few years on, problems which are preventable with basic precautions... But no one takes these precautions because eNdEmIc.
It's not proven to be less serious with reinfections, instead cumulative risk of damage seems to grow.
Who on earth suggested we drop any precautions? I didn't. The continued evolution of SARS-COV-2 is going to happen even with all precautions taken.
All governments and most media suggested and practice that. This is the gamble thdt is being currently executed and I'm giving a lot of good faith when interpreting it as an epidemiological gamble and not as a semi-deliberate eugenics campaign.
You're sure reading a lot of things I never said.