traingang

Thank you very much for taking the time to explain everything so clearly.

From my own understanding, it seems that the central government has been trying to gradually correct many of the structural problems that accumulated in the earlier periods. Measures such as tightening regulation on LGFVs, restricting reckless local borrowing, reducing reliance on land-finance, and shifting the focus away from pure GDP growth toward debt control, risk prevention, and long-term stability all appear to reflect a clear change in direction compared with the past. The recent 化债 program, even if limited in scale, also seems to acknowledge the problem more directly rather than continuing to defer the risks.

At the same time, policies aimed at curbing property speculation, expanding rental housing, discouraging excessive real-estate expansion, and re-emphasizing manufacturing, technology, and the real economy seem to reflect an effort to move away from the development model that took shape during the Jiang and Hu periods, when growth, land revenue, and investment expansion were often prioritized above all else.

Personally, although I fully recognize that China still has many real problems and contradictions, I feel the overall trajectory remains good, especially over the past several years. From my perspective, the Xi era appears to represent a clear break from some of the excesses of the previous development path ( particularly the over-financialization of housing, unchecked local borrowing, and GDP-driven competition between regions ) and a conscious attempt to correct course, even at the cost of slower short-term growth. Of course, I also understand that these adjustments are extremely difficult and cannot be completed quickly. I’m curious about your own view on this: do you think the current approach is sufficient to resolve these structural issues? Are we broadly moving in the right direction, or do you feel some policies are inadequate or even misguided? I’d really appreciate hearing your perspective as you seem very well read.