this post was submitted on 02 Feb 2026
45 points (100.0% liked)

Ask Lemmygrad

1276 readers
7 users here now

A place to ask questions of Lemmygrad's best and brightest

founded 3 years ago
MODERATORS
 

I'm usually a "Sane Trump Theory" supporter, but I see no outcome where the US achieves strategic gains in this one. Even with successful leadership assassination and significant damage to Iran's current nuclear capabilities, it'll just be kicking the can down the road and galvanising even more the Iranian people against the US. There's no way an outright occupation of Iran will happen.

But most NATO substrates have also designated the IRGC as a terrorist org, which I think would imply that the offensive is somehow strategically important. I don't like the whole depoliticising "distraction from Epstein" narrative, but I'm struggling to come up with alternatives here.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] Malkhodr@lemmygrad.ml 15 points 1 month ago (1 children)

They either see a chance to destabilize the government enough so that the reformists completely capitulate (like they've wanted to do). Or Trump is trying to force some lesser negotiation concession and make it look like a win like Maduro.

It depends on whether or not the US believes its own propaganda about Iran's stability/capabilities. I see a real possibility that if they assassinated Khamenei and other high ranking members of the IRGC, Washington may think that would propel the reformists into absolute power and they then concede the missle program, which the IRGC and Guardian council have fiercely opposed negotiations on.

However that's only if Trump and the current clique in power genuinely believes in supremacy of the US.

The more likely thing to happen if Khamenei is assassinated I'd that the IRGC decides that the country is in an emergency scenario and begins liquidating reformists if they think they undermine Iranian sovereignty. They'd likely have popular support after a US operation as people are really sick of the reformists reproachment rhetoric with the west.

Figures like Rohani who before used to proudly discuss these concepts are now opportunistically changing their tune to something more similar to what the IRGC has been saying for a decade. That signals to me that Iranian public opinion is now very clearly mobilized against any negotiation with the US, which the government is still fruitlessly engaging in (Astagfurallah).