this post was submitted on 06 Feb 2026
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I've been saying for years that NATO Article 5 is nothing more than a massive bluff, at least if we're talking about any country east of Germany. It has given the Eastern European NATO members an illusion of safety that emboldens them to behave in the most stupid and provocative way possible toward Russia. Not understanding that if Russia wanted to, it could easily call that bluff. Absolutely no one would declare war on Russia over some Baltic dwarf state. But fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your perspective), Russia is nothing like the aggressive expansionist power that European propaganda makes them out to be. The only scenario in which they would intervene in the Baltics is if they would be forced to do so by an existential threat to Kaliningrad.
Exactly, but honestly I can't imagine that NATO would even work if a major European country like Germany was attacked. At least not without the US getting involved. And the US getting involved is itself is incredibly unlikely because Americans aren't going to risk being nuked for Europe's sake. That's the real elephant in the room. All out war between nuclear states is a world ending scenario.
That said, the whole idea of Russia invading Europe is fantastical beyond belief. Russia simply doesn't have the resources or manpower to occupy Europe, and Russians obviously understand this. And the idea of Russia invading Europe shows that people have one dimensional understanding of security. One just has to look at what the US does, military invasions are rare. Most of the time countries are attacked economically and through political interference. And this is precisely how Russia would fight Europe as well. Europe is already headed for the abyss economically, and that's creating political unrest all across Europe already. And that's the obvious vector of attack.
In a way, Russophobia really is a self fulfilling prophecy. Europe is destroying itself economically to try and keep the proxy war going. And now Europe finds itself entirely dependent on the US for energy and defence with the US turning predatory.
I agree. However it is interesting to consider the difference between Ukraine and the Baltics and why Russia felt forced to intervene in Ukraine due to the threat of a NATO presence being established there, whereas they don't feel the same about the Baltics.
Imo it is exactly because of what this post is about: the indefensibility of the Baltics. A NATO presence in the Baltics is not a threat the same way that it is in Ukraine because Russia could easily and quickly neutralize that threat if they needed to. Ukraine is too big for that, so the threat needed to be pre-empted.
This is also why the obsession of NATO and the EU with fortifying the Baltics is potentially dangerous. I don't think it can be done, but if they were hypothetically to ever get close to achieving a situation in which Russia could no longer easily neutralize the Baltics, that would have the opposite effect of deterrence. It would force Russia to take pre-emptive action.
This is the paradox: the more they militarize themselves and allow NATO to embed itself deeper in their territory, the less secure the states bordering Russia become. Whereas if they were less militarized Russia would be more comfortable with them and much more likely to leave them alone and not even station troops near them.
Finland is the perfect example of such an unforced error. Before Finland joined NATO, Russia's presence on their border was minimal and relations with Russia were decent. Now that has changed. These countries do not understand how security works and are making the situation more dangerous for themselves in the false belief that they are making themselves more secure.
And Romania is making the exact same mistake, and i try to explain to my friends and family there that this is a huge mistake that Romania is making by letting the US build up these huge bases there, but very few seem to understand it. These countries need a serious wake-up call to realize that NATO is a false illusion of security before something very bad happens. I hope the defeat of the NATO proxy war in Ukraine can be that wake up call.
Agreed, if NATO built up Ukraine, that could've posed a serious threat to Russia. Baltics simply aren't, and I don't think they can be fortified or used as a staging area for an invasion effectively. Also, worth noting how Finnish economy is now suffering being cut off from Russia. Not only did they create a new external threat for themselves, they've also created internal problems as a result.