China

We are now seeing how incredibly lucky we are that most of the manufacturing moved to China. It's pretty clear there's little chance the west is actually doing to do anything meaningful about the energy transition in the foreseeable future. Another really important factor is that China's reached the point of capacity where they can now export clean energy tech to the Global South, so developing countries will grow their energy production using renewable energy going forward. At this point, it seems like a crash in the west might be the best thing for the climate. If western consumption drops, that's going to free up resources for productive development of the rest of the world, and cut emissions drastically.