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None of this makes any sense unless there is some super secret versions of these AI that they're holding back from the public. Nothing about the current models is what they claim it to be. Its a useful tool, sure, but its really only as useful as the skill of the operators, and I don't mean "prompt engineer" or whatever other bullshit you call that. I mean actually developers and engineers who have had the time in the trenches to know what is going to work or not work.
Use AI to generate a codebase for an app. Get to an MVP. Then, try and make a change. I dare you to. Its a fucking disaster. These models are not up to the task. Its a structural issue. They have no conception of how things fit together. They're constantly just making shit up whole-cloth, and beyond that, they're just gaslighting you to sound smarter than they are.
They can be used to make demos. They can be used to solve already solved, well trodden problems. But thats really about it. You'll spend 4 hours trying to get it to change one basic component. They're exponentiating the amount of calories burned, but not the amount of work done.
It's a grift, nothing more. The execs know this, but they want new yachts.
Thats what I think. If they had the super secret "next best thing", they'd be pumping it for all its worth. The models themselves have felt asymptoted since 4.0. The engineering around those models has improved, but the underlying models haven't.
There is also a hanging chad around alignment. There was much-ado when I think it was 4.0 or 3.5, around some jailbreaks. Everytime a jailbreak got fixed, the models got worse.
What are the chances that this is orchestrated to bring more computing control to the larger companies who can weather the storm? If end users don't have ram or storage that will make it even easier to push them into walled garden cloud platforms.
Starting to look like that honestly
Edit: and they probably like the AI is flooding the open source market with shitty code and PR that can make it hard to know which projects/PR actually is actually done through human efforts for the betterment of the society
Yeah, they went all in on sabotaging the competition. Using their freely given product to destroy them.
I don't think that is what they originally intended. As always it is just trillion dollar corporations chasing shortsighted profits, they are incapable of making such long term plans.
But that is definitely what they are going to pivot towards when the AI bubble bursts. That will keep the data center circle jerk running for a while longer.
The only hope for consumers is that Chinese manufacturers pick up the slack, but guess which country western governments ABSOLUTELY don't want you buying products from?
How much would it matter?
Even if they are Chinese manufacturers, they would want to go with the high-price buyer, which is larger companies.
And if they do keep some reserve for people, out of some long-term-thought or maybe just some morals, wouldn't they just prefer selling inside China?
Chinese manufacturers would fall outside of the "circlejerk" economy between hardware manufacturers and AI companies, and as such I think AI companies would be less willing to buy from Chinese manufacturers, particularly with Trumpian anti-China policies.
Even if they didn't, Chinese companies still seem to very much be old-school capitalism - they actually still concentrate on making and selling a product instead of just moving capital around with the customer being an obstacle and excuse.
This seems very plausible. But I still don't see what is stopping the AI companies to create proxies to buy out as much of the usable product as possible, maybe only leaving DDR3 and older stuff, so while we will still have the chance to buy it, it will still end up being pretty expensive.
Well, the purchases they make now from western companies is an incestuous "you scratch my back I'll scratch yours" on-paper only revenue scam.
Chinese companies would not play ball with that, because for better or worse, China has a MUCH stronger will to rip a company apart if it's behaving irresponsibly, particularly if that irresponsibility is strengthening US companies' hands. So buying from NVidia means market manipulation and ulterior motives for ledgers and stock prices. Buying from a Chinese company means buying the product at something more like a fair market price rather than sweetheart deals, and then also fighting a US government that is actively fighting Chinese chip production and willing to use tariffs and strongarming to enforce it.
I'm not saying this is exactly how this will shake out, but I am saying it's the only potential place that computer technology has ANY chance of being made for consumers for the next decade or so, so it's them or nothing.
Hopefully it does turn out like that until the AI Co.s get what's coming to them.
Though the same thing will be coming to all of us and I am assuming they are the ones who will get the bailout.
Again, as per Gamers Nexus the Chinese manufacturers have been mandated to prioritise a majority of their production to Chinese data centers, because the Chinese government has its own AI dreams.
They are not going to be the salvation of the consumers.
The hardware bought by a company can't be bought and used by the competitor.
And "computing power" is... power.
You are correct, and now the emerging strategy is to just "re-roll" the entire codebase any time a change is needed. It's insane.