this post was submitted on 04 Mar 2026
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I question the neighbors’ desire to wade into a conflict beyond token support against Iran, so I’d wager they’ll still pressure the US to wrap this up ASAP so they can go back to exporting petroleum. Most of these countries have militaries suited to maintaining domestic control and not much else. Look how poorly the Saudis have done against the Houthis.
The only one I’d seriously consider as a threat to Iran would be Turkey.
I don't expect that they will make significant military contributions, but I think it's possible that at least some of them would prefer to see Iran thoroughly defeated rather than having the war wrapped up quickly.
Yeah I’d agree with that. I guess the question then is what wins out, their desire for revenue or their desire to lose a regional adversary. I guess that’ll depend on how quickly, if at all, the US navy can secure the Straight of Hormuz