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I'm not saying it will stay on top forever or for several hundred years. Just in the near future, the US will still be on top
40y is half a century. You can confidently say the US will be "on top" in 2065? I'm not even confident the US is currently on top.
Meanwhile, China has all the expertise, all the manufacturing, the population, the resources. The west is floundering to cut off their oil supply in the middle east like that will do anything, but they are beating us in renewables and battery tech too. At this point, China's best strategy is to just wait us out.
Not #1 necessarily, but a superpower nevertheless.
China is losing population, at some point in the future crossing below the US population. Maybe by 2100 both settle at 500 million people