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Warnings of Iran Invasion Grow as US to Send Up to 5,000 Marines, Sailors to Middle East
(www.commondreams.org)
this post was submitted on 13 Mar 2026
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I'm pretty sure the window is already closed. This is our second war with Iran in under a year. Both of which were started by the US/Israel; while we were actively negotiating with Iran. After the first war, we bragged about how the negotiation was a genius move by us to catch Iran with a surprise attack. The last time we had a major treaty with Iran, we unilaterally tore it up; and none of the other signatories stepped up to try and make Iran whole.
The 12 day war ended when we decided to end it. Iran agreed because no one likes getting bombed, and they assumed we had done all we had the stomach to do. However, this type of stop-and-go conflict massively favors the US. Iran's strength lies in a sustained war of attrition. Deplete our air defense systems faster than we can resupply them. Disrupt the oil market long enough to cause global shortages. Draw us into a war against an insurgency. None of this is effective if they let us decide when the conflict pauses.
Their actions show this. Mining the straight of Hormuz and bombing oil fields are not the type of action you take for a conflict you don't plan on lasting. Appoint the son of the leader we assisinated as your new leader. Those are decisions that will take months to reverse.
Also, I should mention that the current leader of Iran just had his family killed by us. And Iran was just in the middle of an internal political crisis that conveniently goes away in the face of an external one.
I don't see how we get Iran to agree to end the war without us offering some major concessions.
Short of offering Trump's heads on a platter, I do not think Iran would consider any overture to be sincere. Or the world, for that matter.
good analysis, but this is false, because Iranian missile/drone production is higher than US's, and so it recovers faster than US. JDAM production capacity is high though, even if 2026 budget is only for 2300, and are dependent on rare earths. 2026 budget cost is $80k/unit.
The consumable on the US side is interceptors, not missiles. Iran's ability to land hits goes up dramatically once we are out of them.
JDAMs are plane launched "dumb bombs" with extra guidance and fin system added on to be more precise. Iran doesn't have much defensive systems against the planes, and the bombs themselves are generally not intercepted. Iran does produce more offensive missiles than US combined offensive and defensive missiles, in addition to intensive drone manufacturing by Iran.
Just as there was a 20:1 kill ratio in favour of US in Vietnam as a US metric for how awesome everything was going for the US, generaly, every hit on US allies and Israel counts as a cost that was never supposed to happen. Contrary to Pentagon propaganda about fewer Iran missile launches every day, damaging strikes seem to be steady or increasing.