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US furiously seeks to avert potential monthslong closure of Strait of Hormuz (edition.cnn.com)

submitted 1 week ago by yogthos@lemmygrad.ml to c/us_news@lemmygrad.ml

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Looks like The White House is just winging it, and there's no plan whatsoever:

A recent internal assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency that was circulating inside the Pentagon in recent weeks determined that Iran could potentially keep the passage shut for anywhere from one to six months, four sources familiar with the document told CNN. But White House and Pentagon officials insisted that the assessment — particularly the longer end timeframe, which some consider a worst-case scenario — was not being seriously considered.

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[–] Bronstein_Tardigrade@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 6 days ago (1 children)

"The US furiously seeks to avert..." They could always pack it up and go home; that would avert a months long closure. Easy-peasy.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 5 days ago (1 children)

At that point they lose foothold on the region entirely, and obviously they're not going to do that willingly.

[–] Bronstein_Tardigrade@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 5 days ago (1 children)

I think the US has already lost their foothold, they just don't know it yet. The Gulf states were exchanging trillions of dollars in US investments for a security guarantee, and it turns out the US can't protect a damn thing.

[–] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 5 days ago

For sure, but it does seem like the Gulf states are still hedging right now. Iran has to decisively defeat the US and force them into retreat the way Afghanistan did. At that point, the neighbouring states will have no option but to work with Iran going forward.