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I'm going to say its "energy prices in general" that will sink him. Gasoline is certainly one of the biggest ones. However, Americans are being squeezed on energy prices in all areas. This winter just ending has been pretty cold and natural gas prices have been higher. Electricity prices too with the double whammy of increased demand from data centers and the decline in supply. Supply is not keeping up because of trump's war on commercial solar and wind generation, and pissing off our wonderful neighbors to the north that have abundant electricity from hydropower for export.
Worse, consumers, hit with high home and car energy prices, will seek substitutions. Home PV solar and EVs are pretty good solutions to this. Then consumers will see that trump canceled PV solar and EV tax credits in his signature BBB.
In June we'll see the next auction rates for electricity generation. I think its going to be even worse than the last auction rates. With climate change increasing heat during the summers, we're going have months of eye-popping electricity bills at the retail level right as the November elections are getting underway.
Gas prices are special because they're plastered all over roadways, which is important for cognition if you struggle with object permanence.
I think for the subset of people who are left still on the Trump train, this is actually a material consideration.