Ukraine now makes more drones than any democracy in the world, and wealthy nations in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are lining up to buy them. But when I asked the CEO of Rheinmetall what that could mean for his business model, he bristled. “Who is the biggest drone producer in Ukraine?” Papperger demanded. I listed the ones that I had visited in Kyiv two weeks earlier, Fire Point and Skyfall, which make hundreds of thousands of drones a month for the Ukrainian armed forces. “It’s Ukrainian housewives,” Papperger said of their factories. “They have 3-D printers in the kitchen, and they produce parts for drones,” he said. “This is not innovation.”
As one of the biggest gunsmiths in the world, Papperger knows a lot about the state of the art in defense. His empire encompasses 180 factories (including eight in the United States) producing not only tanks and artillery but warships, missiles, high-end drones, anti-aircraft batteries, and fuselages for fighter jets such as the F-35. The company that he leads plays such an outsize role in the defense of NATO and Ukraine that the Russians put Papperger on a target list for assassination in 2024.
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Most drones are too cheap to move the needle toward NATO’s gargantuan spending targets.
Among the few exceptions is the $20 billion contract that the Pentagon signed this month with Anduril, an American defense-technology company founded in 2017. That amount of money “could probably buy all the drones Ukraine produces,” Oleksandr Kamyshin, the official who oversees Ukraine’s weapons industry, told me. But as a general rule, Western militaries tend to give the biggest contracts to established manufacturers.
With the start of the war in Iran, Rheinmetall told investors that it expects sales to grow this year by at least 40 percent. Its market value now stands at roughly $80 billion, far higher than Germany’s biggest carmakers, including Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz. Last month, the company was already in talks to sell weapons worth 80 billion euros, adding to a backlog of orders that is expected to top 135 billion euros by the end of 2026. “This would be the highest order intake ever,” Papperger said. “But everybody knows that this is not enough. We need at the end of the day 400, 500, or more—600 billion!”
Reminds me of the people here in the US who drive gargantuan, gas-guzzling trucks and SUV's in order to make themselves feel cool, when there are smaller, more efficient, and better-running vehicles that are readily available and more useful for daily travel.
Iran and Ukraine have certainly demonstrated that military priorities in America are misplaced, not to mention their strategy. From what I've read, we're running out of the interceptor missiles we need to protect against these drones and they're too expensive and difficult to produce that it'll take years to replace the American stockpile. (Though, admittedly, I'm no expert and only know what I read.)
It also reminds me of Vietnam, when the US was defeated, essentially, with booby traps made of wood, natural cables and string, and scavenged ordnance. Hell, listening to Keg-breath speak about Iran reminds me very much of Robert McNamara. Sucks that we have people running wars who paid smarter people to write their history term papers.
But this one isn't on the military in my book. The Joint Chiefs told them the US military wasn't prepared for a war with Iran and why, and Donald just assumed he could order up another victory like a Big Mac. He was destined to fuck with the wrong country eventually.
Yes and no. The problem pattern of ammunition production follows defense contracts: buy enough for stock, then don’t buy anymore. The industry is not configured for steady production.
Now we’re using a steady number but don’t have steady production to replenish stocks, but it seems like more of a production or industry configuration issue than a usage issue.
It’s also part of the reason weapons are so expensive: there’s no steady market to support steady production
Not historically. But eventually you purge everyone who tells you "No" and the military you're left with is Yes-Men.
Incidentally,
Really tells you where the military in this country is headed.