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Some have said that when this war is over, it will be a different world.
But that is not the whole truth, because it is already a different world. The image of the invincible US military is in ruins. This war with Iran can turn out to be nearly as disastrous for USA as the Russian war against Ukraine is to Russia.
Zelenskyy has been on a charm tour to the Arab countries, and offered help to defend against the Iranian attacks, that USA has failed to defend against. And hopefully this will result in significant Arab investments in Ukrainian industries.
These investments are most likely to be drawn from US investments.
When the Ukraine war is over, Ukraine will very quickly become member of EU. And Ukraine will prosper fast with strong know how, and a strong will and help to rebuild after the war.
As a member of EU, the enormous goodwill and prestige Ukraine has earned, will benefit EU too. And EU will be stronger than ever. While USA risk to lose the petro dollar because they fucked up in the middle east.
USA is not losing the war in Iran, because it's already lost. Unfortunately for USA, there is no graceful exit, so chances are that USA will escalate instead. But that will only make it worse for USA. With even more losses for USA in lives money and prestige.
The big immediate winner is of course China, but EU might actually also win from this in the long run. And the sure loser is USA.
Even Iran will benefit, the oil export sanctions against them have already been lifted, and they will keep control of the Hormuz strait.
A new deal between USA and Iran will be on Iranian terms not American.
Funny how this was predicted 2 years ago?
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/who-is-jiang-xueqin-professor-behind-viral-trump-iran-prediction-11170722
The headline is misleading though, because USA has already lost the war, so all 3 came true.
I actually went back and watched the original video, and it's spot on, there can be no doubt about the accuracy of his prediction.
Quick note, petroleum sanctions on Iran from the US are not lifted - the only thing permitted is to buy the barrels now at sea, i.e., from the dark fleet. Same deal with Russia.
OK that is probably true, it rings a bell.
But it still sounds a bit like a partial lift of sanctions, which for Iran is still better than before the war.
On a side note, it is not impossible that it will be extended. I also wouldn't be surprised if Asian countries begin to pick up oil directly from Iran, and ignore USA. USA has created an impossible situation for many countries, there are already rations in some countries.
Will USA then threaten those countries? Thailand, Philippines, Japan, China.
I think internationally Iran is in a better position now than before the war.
The fat old orange child molester will absolutely guarantee Iran has the bomb. Look ant North Korea. The US bombed it into oblivion and they took action so it would never happen again.
Allegedly the previous Ayatollah the USA killed was actually against Iran having nuclear weapons, as he considered it against the morals of Islam.
But I guess the next Ayatollah, will find a way to get around that.
I doubt it. The EU faces the same fundamental problem as the US: Powerful, greedy and unresponsive elites unwilling to compromise with their subjects. I think we're more likely to see an overall weaker and somehow even more dysfunctional EU with Ukraine as a counterbalance to its traditional Western and Northern European power base (assuming the EU doesn't drop the ball on Ukrainian recovery like it repeatedly did on the war).
I disagree with everything you write.
We may also have a greedy elite, but the scale of the problem is way less than what it is in USA. They are both not as rich, and their power is way better regulated, for instance we don't have the moronic super packs. With Russia collapsing and losing the war to Ukraine, EU countries that are acting in the interest of Russia, will be way less of a problem, and the traditional values of Democracy in EU will be reestablished.
I absolutely see Ukraine as less of a problem in EU than UK used to be. EU may need to be reformed to manage the big number of member states better. But EU has proven able to act when necessary during the Ukraine war. This is the opposite of dysfunctional despite countries like Hungary and Slovakia that are serving Russian interests.
Also around the world the respect for EU is increasing, and acknowledgement of how EU works for international law, is recognized as being different from USA, where previously we were seen as an American puppet, EU is making itself more independent of USA, and we are distancing ourselves from USA way more than at any point since WW2.
This will pave the way for way bigger international recognition and cooperation, and make EU stronger both internally and in outside relations. EU is built on cooperation that benefit us all, this is both among the member countries, and with EU allies and trading partners.
I'm not saying we will surpass China, but we can work with China on a reasonably level playing field, and the same with USA, where USA used to dominate, that domination will soon be over if it isn't already.