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this post was submitted on 15 Oct 2023
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If Windows 12 becomes subscription-based, Google and Apple will be laughing all the way to the bank.
If it becomes subscription only, I wouldn't be surprised if the OEM pays for it for at least a few years (as in included in the price)
They wouldn't want to go out of business.
And Microsofts main consumer which is enterprises wouldn't really be affected since Windows is already a subscription for many of them in the form of M365 (for example, it's included in E3)
And I doubt Apple would make much more money since their OS is so different and locked down compared to Windows. If Apple started to sell a license for whatever computer then yeah that could happen, but they won't.
ChromeOS is free but their office suite isn't really comparable to MS.
You have to understand that the bulk of computer buyers aren't really that computer literate. As someone who worked 4 years in IT, I'll tell you that the average computer user doesn't even know how to install a graphics card driver, let alone do any other stuff. If given the choice between even $5 a month or learning to use a Mac or a Chromebook, people will learn to use a Mac or a Chromebook. Linux isn't even a consideration.
The vast majority of people are perfectly happy with Google Docs/Slides/Sheets for daily personal use. If the choice comes down to using the Google office suite or paying a subscription, people tend to avoid paying. I know ZERO people who subscribe to Office 365 for personal use (besides those tricked into it). They either pay for the one-off license, pirate if they know how, use copies paid for by their work, or use alternatives.
People don't care that ChromeOS and MacOS are locked down. They don't do anything that requires the "unlocked" operating system and you can bet your ass that if Microsoft starts charging a subscription fee, Apple and Google's marketing teams will jump so hard on that it'll crack the pavement.
My main points were about Microsofts biggest customers, aka enterprises which is why I said that, and mentioned office at all.
I highly doubt normal windows will ever charge a subscription fee. I won't consider it until microsoft removes the popular ways to get office and windows free from GitHub (a service they own) and they haven't yet, after many years.
Microsoft doesn't really care that much about personal usage.
You're right that Microsoft's main source of income is enterprise customers. But at the same time, I strongly believe that IT departments worldwide would start to seriously consider what tasks they really need Windows or Microsoft Office for and start considering giving as many employees as possible Macs or Chromebooks or even Linux systems. An additional $5 a month multiplied by a thousand systems is $60,000 p.a. I do see IT directors trying to minimise the number of Windows licenses wherever possible in that case. Does the receptionist really need Windows when the scheduling software is cloud-based? Can we replace it with a Chromebook? Is it finally worth it to give the designers the Macs they've been clamouring for? And the big one—do we really need Active Directory specifically now that everyone's got a Mac or a Chromebook? These are questions that have to be answered by IT departments worldwide and every time they're answered in the affirmative, it costs Microsoft another customer. Not everyone will switch, but the impact will still be non-negligible, and people will also think twice before getting Microsoft systems in the future.
I think you're right. Microsoft isn't stupid enough to try this.
Windows is already a subscription for many companies through microsoft 365.
That's true and if Microsoft decrees "Windows is included at no charge with a Microsoft 365 license", I would think that's many times more palatable.
And per user license for acceasing server
I'm pretty sure user CALS are also included in at least the more popular 365 subscriptions like E3
I don't know all the detaila, I just know the comanpanies we serve complain of inhouse windows server needing per user account license for using OS amd accessing server. MS is a subscriptiom via yearly license fees