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this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2023
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politics
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Siena College is a private Franciscan college. The Franciscans are a group of related mendicant Christian religious orders. Siena was founded by the Order of Friars Minor in 1937. The college has 3,000 full-time students.
So, a conservative Christian college says Trump is ahead. Got it.
Siena is reputable when it comes to polling. It's not like they just choose a friar to guess what the outcome of an election will be. This kind of surface-level criticism is bad for consuming accurate information.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/siena-college/
i mean 538 and nate silver have always been garbage
They've always been pretty good, aside from their centrist ass political takes. They have a pretty good track record and got closer to predicting Trump winning in 2016 than anybody else.
I live near Sienna and my son visited there as he looks at colleges. It's definitely still got religious roots (the friars are still a constant presence), but they've gotten more non-denominational. I also got the impression that they aren't that conservative. They might not be as liberal as some colleges, but they aren't alt-right either.
That being said, my son decided against Sienna for various reasons (including the fact that their Computer Science department seems tiny compared to other colleges in the area).
The bigger issue isn't the college's leaning, it's that polls a year out are pretty worthless. In politics, a year is basically forever. The big issues driving voters right now can be completely different a year from now. Events and scandals can crop up that could be the focus of the 2024 election. So while perhaps the Biden campaign should use this poll to remind themselves not to be complacent, I don't think this poll means that it's time to panic.
There are numerous polls showing Trump is ahead of Biden, by a significant margin. The recent turmoil in Gaza is definitely widening that gap.
Biden needs to drop out of the race now, for America to avoid another Trump presidency. Any democrat will do, but not Biden. Unfortunately his ego won’t have it, nor will the demands of the corporate oligarchs, so unless Americans are willing to riot (we aren’t, couch too comfy) we are well and truly fucked.