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this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2023
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Finland is NATO. He'll NEVER invade Finland. Have fun dividing up your oh so great, properly trained and well equipped army haha! Not like he'll need the troops in Ukraine, that war is going as smooth AF.
I feel like he's doing this just to threaten the troops on the front line with somewhere colder
Loads of forest up north. I'd prefer a camp fire over gunfire. Just make sure to bring your own axe.
Finns camp in such conditions voluntarily. Russians probably do too, lol. In fact, many Russians in that particular area of Russia are a lot more like Finns than they are like Russians. In fact, they are being repressed, and their language and culture is being systematically erased. If we are playing by Russian rules, this means Finland just has to step in, to uphold the human rights of the Finnic peoples living in this area.
I get your point. However, within a military it's not like you're stationed where you are originally from. So, most military left right now are the minorities from the east, or at least, they are drafted and sent to the front an mass. Except maybe for the officers not going to the front. But then again, they aren't stationed where they are from, but where the regime requires them to be. I bet the minorities living in Russia close to Finland won't feel much support for the regime, unless they too are too much brainwashed by the propaganda. But in general, the minorities often prefer to separate from Russia completely.
I've been making the same argument about the Han population of the Vladivostok Oblast for a while now. Xi actually has a lot to gain there, and no one outside of Russia would bat an eye.
Wow, I can't believe you're making me root for a Chinese invasion of Vladivostok. You know what though? At this point, fuck it. Go right ahead, Xi.
Karelia is the region of Russia close to Finland. And these people are technically Karelians (and I'm ethnically part Karelian as my father is Karelian). Karelian historically forcefully were assimilated either into what is Finland or Russian Federation today. Karelian culture is near extinct.
We all better pray you're right. If he does end up trying to invade Finland, it'll be a global f*ckup
Can you expand?
Russia clashing with multiple nuclear powers. What could go wrong?
They've been held at bay for over a year by a smaller army with at best 20+ year old "B stock" conventional munitions often Jerry rigged to give half the capabilities they have when used as intended. Russia is a paper tiger who would get the Iraq revolutionary guards treatment inside 3 weeks if they start shit against the finns. And nobody outside Putin himself is suicidal enough to start throwing nukes.
You're assuming Russia is going to be a rational actor, and that there are enough checks and balances to keep Putin from using nukes.
What is this, non credible defense? If you believe that, then nothing matters and all options are on the table including preemptive action, because you either assume that MAD is enough to stave off that stupidity or you dont. But...this is all bullshit propaganda and saber rattling so who really cares.
The claim is that it would be a global fuck up, maybe implying that it wouldn't be limited to Russia/nato. Not that this wouldn't be messy in and of itself, if Russia were to invade, I suspect they would be left out on their own by everyone else. They're already struggling with Ukraine. I doubt anyone is going to want to step up and help them against NATO. They would probably lose a lot of the external but indirect support they are getting right now because countries would be hesitant to support a country against the us.
If it's just "war is bad" then yeah, kind of a duh statement.
Hopefully everybody else would be sensible and nobody would take Russia's side. Hopefully Russia wouldn't randomly nuke other countries in their death throes.
But even if both of those things turn out fine the economic fallout (and other kinds of fallout if it goes nuclear) will be a global problem.
The idea is to set the strategic position such that your opponent knows that any war would be a failure, and therefore they never try it at all. Finland joining NATO is pretty much that.
This is a dangerous assumption when it comes to nukes, though. Not because it doesn't work on its own, but because small mistakes have disastrous consequences for the entire planet. Works better for conventional warfare.