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this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2023
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politics
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Americans are not stupid. You will not convince them the economy is good by spitting out some numbers twisted from the data. They feel it. They know how easy or hard it is to make ends meet. They know their rent goes up every year while their wages do not.
And the harder is gets, the more radical the population becomes. Establishment democrats like Biden will not be able to maintain the status quo. Normally I wouldn't care but their incompetence has consequences. A Trump victory at this point may signal the end of the US as we know it. We cannot continue to stay asleep at the wheel.
Your purchasing power has fallen over 20% in the last 3 years. We're talking and average of around 7% real inflation per year. Not the official "~3%" the government puts out. That's over 3x higher than average over the last 4 decades.
The economy has been bad, but that doesn't change that it is getting better on many important metrics. These are leading indicators, predicting what will be, but the effects that people are feeling are more like lagging indicators that are reacting to the past and present. Hopefully we see these predictions play out in the next year before the election and into the next presidency.
What we're going to see is a slight boost in the coming months as the federal reserve lowers the interest rate (by coincidence, also an election year 🤔)
But with the interest rate going down, the main barrier holding us back from higher inflation is being torn down. What will be the consequences of this? Prices will rise.
I think they are betting that the Ukrainian war ends in the next few months. If not ends, at least becomes a frozen conflict. This would remove a large inflationary pressure from the global system.
It's a gamble. Perhaps they even are negotiating with Russia behind the scenes. Russian high-level officials were spotted flying to DC last week.
We'll have to see. Hopefully they can end the war and lower interest rates. That would in effect give a large boost right before the 2024 election. Is that enough to pry the election away from Trump? I don't know. Biden is incredibly unpopular (even more unpopular than Trump at this same time! One of the least popular presidents in history).
When it comes to "literal starvation" or "overthrow the shackles of oppression" I have a fair idea of what a lot of locals will choose.
The problem is the goal of "overthrow the shackles of oppression" may be a valid goal with class self interest in mind..
But that desire can be manipulated into accomplishing the opposite. And the populist right has shown their ability to harness the fear and insecurity that is growing in this country.
We desperately need a renewed leftist movement that the average American can get behind. Without some sort of mass movement soon, I see things getting worse before they get better.
I hope unions accomplish this. All our political parties are unwilling to.
They forget that the second option is followed by feudalism. Do they want to be serfs? Because they will be literal property of the aristocratic classes if they elect Trump and let him destroy the constitution.
Fuedalism may seem like a utopian pipe dream with what is possible. Imagine a transition to an authoritarian surveillance capitalism state (something like China).
With AI, they can even read your thoughts. You get booked into the police because of something you posted online anonymously, they interrogate you while they read your thoughts. You believe in communism? Terrorist -> prison.
These things can happen faster than we expect. Hitler took Germany from a democracy to a hell hole in less than a decade.
It looks like all countries in the world are slowly converging on a mixture of the US and Chinese system. Capitalist corporations endowed with power by the state. No free market - a few large companies are easier to control. Strong executive power and theater democracy. Large prison populations.
Also, this isn't unique to Trump. The Democrats would bring us to the same destination, just slower. We need a new left. A mass movement like the mass protests of the 60s. That has historically been the only thing that can bring real and significant positive change to the American people.
I prefer not to depend on feelings. My feelings can sometimes be wrong.. isolated data is not a prefered indicator, because it must be interpreted to be meaningful.
I've put several links in this string that should address your point.
Feelings decide elections, not numbers. And a large majority of Americans do not have confidence in the economy.
These people, living day in and out under the system intuitively understand their position, even if they can't spit out figures at you. They recognize their lives are harder than their grandparents. They recognize they are working for less year after year.
Many of us are privileged- I know I am. We make good money working from home, not having any issues paying our expenses and saving for the future.
But we cannot let that privilege blind us into believing misleading optimistic figures. We are on the edge of a precipice, both economically, financially, and militarily. If the left doesn't do something soon, we will lose the next decade to fascism.
I understand. The fact is, however, that the economy is doing well by all measurements. These are figures, not optimistic, just numbers. The US came out of the pandemic economic depression robustly. Also, the fact is that the top percentile has accumulated wealth at unprecedented rates. I suspect we are on the cusp of a generational shift when higher paid older workers retire to be replaced by younger workers. That can never happen fast enough for the younger.
YES, THAT'S THE FUCKING PROBLEM
Yes, a large one....
The only measurement that counts to any voter is the one on their own bank statement. Tell them the economy is doing great all you want. It may even be true. If they're having to decide which utility bill to not pay this month, they're unlikely to give your data greater weight than their datum.
And he responded. Are those the end of your argument? Because as other poster said, statistics can be used to lie just as well as inform. You are familiar with this, correct?
If you have the stomach for getting in to the nitty gritty, pick one of your metrics and ill explain patiently why theyre bullshit.
(Good) Statistics don't lie, but they can deceive.
So, you want me address your data without addressing mine? I'm not going to get into an hour debate on a chat board for no ther reason but it bores me. Sorry.
"I don't want to put in the work but I'll go through the effort of letting you know I'm not doing work instead of just ignoring you"
You can simply ignore people if you're just going to use a lot of words to say nothing.