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Would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Trump was president?
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Trump refuses to send more than token "aid" to Ukraine.
Trump restates how the USA pays a huge chunk of NATO's dues and points to Germany and the like as needing to step up as the war is practically in their own back yard.
Invasion lasts about a year before Ukraine and the EU are out of juice to continue countering Russia's offensive. Trump walks in to broker the peace agreement to get public credit for "stopping" the war.
Democrats have two choices, openly fight to continue the war in Ukraine so Trump can't get credit (because Cheeto-Man bad!) or openly side with Trump in slowing/stopping the war to help their chances of re-election. I guess those who weren't needing to be running could remain silent on the issue.
Trump get's elected again.