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Would Putin have invaded Ukraine if Trump was president?
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Yes, it was bound to happen. The US had been messing with Ukraine for a long time. Russia would be very stupid to stand by and let the US set up military bases in Ukraine.
But I think Trump would have forced Germany, Poland and other NATO nations to send troops to Ukraine. Republicans would consider Zelensky a hero and Zelensky would try to appease them even more by doing conservative things like attacking LGBTQ+ people and Muslims.
The Democrats would be pro-peace (at least to the public, in Congress they would 100% support aid to Ukraine) and blame Trump for the whole war. Trump would simply call them losers.
Trump refuses to send more than token "aid" to Ukraine.
Trump restates how the USA pays a huge chunk of NATO's dues and points to Germany and the like as needing to step up as the war is practically in their own back yard.
Invasion lasts about a year before Ukraine and the EU are out of juice to continue countering Russia's offensive. Trump walks in to broker the peace agreement to get public credit for "stopping" the war.
Democrats have two choices, openly fight to continue the war in Ukraine so Trump can't get credit (because Cheeto-Man bad!) or openly side with Trump in slowing/stopping the war to help their chances of re-election. I guess those who weren't needing to be running could remain silent on the issue.
Trump get's elected again.
Materialist analysis