That might be true in the US, but that is certainly untrue in other parts of the world, where college/university is way cheaper/free and the pay difference a degree makes can be huge.

I live in Germany and I think it almost always pays off to ge to university, at least if you are interested in anything even close to MINT.
And even in non MINT areas a higher degree opens many doors that otherwise are really hard to get into.

Otherwise, go learn a trade and join a union.

My kid fell for this. They promise you'll get paid while you learn. What they don't tell you is that IF you manage to pass the entrance exam (he did) you get put on a list for open apprenticeship positions, waiting to be called in at any moment. While you're on that list you don't get paid. If you do get a spot, contracts only last a couple of months. Then you go back on the list. Rinse and repeat. And the longer you've been in the union the higher up you get placed on the list. So the older members get placed before the newer ones no matter what number they were in line. This "join a trade" push is similar to the charter school scam, siphoning up state and federal training funds without delivering results.

I think this is a bad take.

First of all, there are very few guarantees in life.

Second of all, I think society’s way of expecting 18 year olds to know what they want to do with their lives is not realistic. Going to a university and meeting and interacting with new people you haven’t just spent the last decade with can help shape what those ideas for the future should be.

Learning a trade and joining a union is a great option for some, but I think it takes a special type of person (the same way it takes a special type of person to work with kids, or in the medical space, or with technology). I would never discount that as an option, but certainly not encourage 18 year olds to default to that either