Google's death spiral will take a while but it's clearly circle the drain.
It will likely never completely die the same way IBM never died but it will stop being the desired placed for new graduates.
The fundamental problem with these businesses is that they are Too Big To Fail. Which is to say, they'll have a low-interest line of credit and enormous historic revenue streams that carry them decades past what should be an expiration date.
If a better Search Engine pops up, Google can either buy them out or vexatiously litigate them into the ground. If they start losing ground to Microsoft or Facebook, their treasury can simply hedge the losses by purchasing their rivals' stock. If they face an outside challenger - a ByteDance or a Pinstorm - they can lobby the Feds to lock out the competition or buffer their weak sales by winning more federal contracts from the PRISM program.
And, in the end, they'll always have their IP. Decades of accumulated "we developed a special coding technique for pressing a button, so now you owe us money any time you press a button" basic legacy infrastructure that everyone else will be forced to license by a captured judiciary/regulatory body.
Like GE and Walt Disney and Authentic Brands Group, they don't actually have to make anything in the end. They can reap tens of billions of dollars by collecting rents on the company legacy.
Just zombie firms feasting on the brains of smaller businesses and retail customers forever and ever and ever.
We can always hope for another Enron.
As a Houston native that gives me IBS just to think about.
Source: I've done student outreach for Amazon (sitting at a booth, chatting to students, doing student program interviews).
That ship has sailed. While big tech still means big salaries, many graduates are now smart enough to realise that the magic number a company says they'll pay you every year is meaningless if they'll lay you off three months from now to appease some shareholders.
They see OpenAI, and they see a startup that basically mopped the floor with ALL of big tech in something they supposedly did for the better part of a decade. I genuinely think we're a few small success stories away from FAANG being completely relegated to boomer tech like IBM.
Google is done, IMO. The same goes for Meta, the two big tech companies that showed people how "fun" an office could be. They're now relegated to normal companies...and their output over the last few years show a set of companies with few stand-out winners. Do you really want to slog through a tough CS degree and a 4-5 stage interview process requiring months of prep to work on Google Docs, or work hard for years only to be woken up every night for a whole week because Amazon Fashion is suffering downtime, all while VP's move to different departments in a blindingly obvious move to avoid department shutdowns and being associated with mass job losses?
IMO, if Google stick with Sundar, and Amazon stick with Jassy, they are done. They'll lose their status and go into slow decline over the next decade.
Please treat this as an explanation, and not an apology for big tech. If you work in tech, or are thinking about it, understand the rules of the game :
First, a new skill goes hot - maybe functionally superior, may just be a trend. In tech, it’s always the new shiny.
Demand for skills outstrips supply
Salaries go up !
Big tech flex, offer big money to hoover up the talent. Sometimes it’s for projects, sometimes it’s just to keep them out of the hands of competition, in case the trend becomes a standard
Time passes
Chasing big salaries, lots of people acquire the skill.
Supply outstrips demand, skill becomes a commodity.
Salaries come down
Big Tech is still paying huge salaries, for skills that may have stopped trending, but at the very least - are now available at market at a much lower rate. If you include globalisation, it could be 30% of what they are paying.
The high salary hires get cut, because there’s a new skill trending, or, the same skill is now available at much lower rate .
Everyone is shocked !
This has been tech workers life cycle for at least 30 years, and I don’t see it changing
You're missing the whole "growth starts to plateau so management looks for ways to cut costs"
And
"Product comparatively stable so it gets hired out to contractors who inevitably fuck it up because they're cheap and there was 0 knowledge transfer but it's too late you laid off the entire original team"
Big Tech is still paying huge salaries, for skills that may have stopped trending
I gotta say, we live in some truly rarified space when fucking Python, possibly the best programming language developed in my lifetime, stops "trending". I don't even know what that's supposed to mean from a business perspective. Its not like you just get to stop supporting a legacy language. Just ask someone who spent seven years, fresh out of college, supporting archaic old school ASP pages and Perl scripts.
But also you're not just supporting the language. You're supporting an entire suite of libraries, applications, and interfaces built for the particular environment.
Elon Musk learned this the hard way when he started trying to tear the wiring out of the walls and sell it for scrape at Twitter.
Also, the story of Boeing's planes-that-don't-fly-good. Decades of engineering out the door to save money in a single quarter means accumulating tail risk that you - a manager who will be up or out in another five years - never have to deal with.
This has been tech workers life cycle for at least 30 years, and I don’t see it changing
Longer than 30, to be sure. But its the sort of thing that comes at the expense of end users, rather than business execs. That's the dirty secret behind these business decisions. Making the product worse only ever seems to benefit the firm's bottom line when a business is in a secure cartel.
Python is great for what it is, but the best language developed in your lifetime? Its type system is janky and bolted on. A good type system is one of the main things I look for to call a programming language great.
Sundar Pichai-led company
Is that really a better description than just saying Google?
CEOs. Name them. Shame them.
Folks need to start naming Prabhakar Raghavan, he’s the mother fucker that fucked up the search side to increase ad revenue, which is what Pacai hired him to do like a good little McKinsey alum
The board of directors probably plays bigger roles when it comes to layoffs than the C-Suites.
So no ones at fault, if companies knew that they could save so much money. Apparently CEOs do fuck all and banking hundreds of millions.
Personally I like seeing his name nailed to the worst era in Google’s history. The company has gone into the shitter since he arrived.
Sundar Pichai will go down as one of the worst tech CEOs. Dude appears as such a nice guy from podcasts I've listened with him but really awful at his job and has zero consistent personality. He's a straight up corporate robot with no original opinions or idealogies. Unfortunately, none of that is visible or really matters because Google has infinite source of ad money so any KPIs are made irrelevant.
It's like he looked at Carly Fiorina's run on HP and said "hold my beer".
Cheaper labour in the most expensive town in a country that is well known for high labour costs?
Compared to Valley workers, Germans are still cheap. 100k is a very very good salary over here.
When you have a much better social safety net, work-life balance and in general can expect to be treated like a human and not a work-battery to be used up and discarded, people are satisfied with much less money.
Should they maybe instead just try that in the US? Nah, of course not.
Could easily be that they have a bunch of people in Munich they can not fire since German labour laws are at least compared to a lot of places not that bad and they have to come up with some work for them. So having them work on this is still cheaper then having the people in the valley plus "useless" people in Munich.
Google, who was famous for employing Guido van Rossum (creator of Python) is now firing their python team. I wonder why they didn't reassign them to the ML/AI division.
Guido van Rossum is working at Microsoft now.
Ahhh, the truest sign of a company in decline, cutting costs by firing talented people.
Making CEO decisions, is easy for AI. Cant AI just replace these CEO's more readily than programmers.
The only staff who need firing is Sundar. Google and android should have been easy better by now but he made them stagnant.
Android is still the best mobile os but it could have been even better under better leadership. Plus they could have enabled and experimented with the OEM's to allow for additional hardware buttons, button remapping, a native Dex on all Androids, official gcam port to all OEM's so they don't need to make their own camera algorithms and even the cheapest droid could have had flagship level cameras.
And we haven't even touched on software yet....
Fire his useless ass
I think this is the first time in my life I read the words cheaper and Munich in the same sentence
Compared to software developer compensation in California, Germany is waaaay cheaper.
Heck, Munich is cheaper for Google than literally any of their US offices. You would make more by working for Google in Raleigh, North Carolina than in Munich.
The only European city that pays as well as the US is Zürich. The pay is really good there, about the same as Seattle.
Cheap labor = moving entire python workforce to other countries.
Capitalism 101
For a blissful moment I thought the headline was saying "Google Lays Off Sundar Pichai"
Before I got the hyphen I was starting to get down on the floor.
Even if he gets layed off or even fired, he will still receive a larger compensation package than either you or I will receive as compensation in the whole of our working lives, most likely both of ours together his compensation package will dwarf even ten times what we will make together our whole lives.
And this is if he does the shittiest job he can possibly do and gets fired.
I’m really starting to think Google has gone to shit now.
You are only starting to think that NOW?
CEOs are sociopaths.
To be totally honest, i might be a sociopath too if i only have to work for a year and have enough money for a many generations
Honestly, I think there is something to that. You probably do need to be a sociopath in order to become a CEO like that, but I’d also buy that becoming wealthy, by any means, is probably going to change you and your worldview whether you like it or not
Everyone needs a union
The irony is that they are moving to Germany, one of the most unionized countries in the entire world. Also not exactly "cheap" labor.
München is not cheap city to reside in nor are the suburbs.
Compared to..... San Francisco?
Has this CEO done anything good?
For shareholders, he has increased the share price and dividends.
It seems he has done this via Boeing route of management, short term gain for long term decline.
Lot of knowledge to just throw out there, Sundar.
Let's hope your documentation can handle it, or a whole lot of important stuff is going to take forever to fix if/when it breaks
Really dumb considering the recent FTC noncompete ruling lol
https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/29/google_python_flutter_layoffs/
Perhaps a bit better source. At least a bit less irritating to read.
This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
