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Trump edges out Biden 51-42 in head-to-head matchup: POLL (abcnews.go.com)

submitted 1 year ago by chakan2@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

43 comments fedilink hide all child comments

There was an article earlier about people smoking crack if they thing Trump is up 10 points.

Well...he's up 10 points. The Democrats need to do something fairly drastic soon if they want to win 24.

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[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 31 points 1 year ago

The election is more than a year away, the article was about YOUNG people, and Democrats have been massively overperforming in special elections, demonstrating that there's a polling issue right now.

See you in a year.

[-] jocanib@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

This is so scarily reminiscent of Dem complacency in 2016. Learn from history lest you be doomed to repeat it. Please.

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

I'm not suggesting or supporting complacency. We do not have this in the bag, and we had damn well better be prepared to fight every step of the way, because progress is an existential threat to these assholes.

I'm just suggesting that we don't get cynical and apathetic, either. We can and will win if we don't give up, but cynicism and apathy are just as much the enemy as complacency.

[-] jocanib@lemmy.world -1 points 1 year ago

Your entire post is supporting complacency.

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

No it wasn't, it was fighting misinformation (the article in question had been specifically about young voters, not the overall electorate), and against ridiculous dooming. We have no reason to lose hope right now or declare the election over more than year before it even happens.

[-] jocanib@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

I'm not telling you to lose hope. I'm asking people to avoid the same lazy complacency that handed Trump the presidency in 2016. Trump fans will vote. Dems have got to get the turnout to beat them.

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

Well, then you and I are in 100% agreement, and I'm sorry if my attempt to counter a doom-filled narrative came off as complacency. It wasn't my intent in the slightest.

[+] chakan2@lemmy.world -10 points 1 year ago

I feel like I'm the only one here old enough to have actually voted for Kerry and Clinton. This is how those elections started as well...

Everyone discounted the polls because they were absurd. No way Bush wins, he's a...uh...special guy. 12 months later, Kerry concedes because he didn't want to do to America what Trump did.

Just saying kids...history repeats.

[-] ericisshort@lemmy.world 17 points 1 year ago

You’re definitely not the only one. I remember both of Kerry and Clinton and was quite upset at the time about how blind the dems were to the obvious signs, but this is not enough to become alarmed. It is single poll conducted by phone making it incredibly skewed. And it’s a single poll.

[-] chakan2@lemmy.world -2 points 1 year ago

It is single poll conducted by phone

Dunno man...the people that still pick up the phone are still by far the only people that vote consistently.

[-] ericisshort@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

Another horrible take.

[-] chakan2@lemmy.world -2 points 1 year ago

Then, I'm wrong, and this doesn't turn out like the Hillary election.

Putting your head in the sand with your fingers in your ears won't make this go away.

[-] ericisshort@lemmy.world 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

lol you act like there’s only two options - believing this singular poll indicates a trend, or pretending the poll doesn’t exist. However, no one is saying that it doesn’t exist. We just think it uses a singular and questionable collection technique and on its own is not enough data to draw a conclusion.

It’s clear from your initial post that you thought this was a second poll that validated the first, but once you’ve been confronted with the fact that this is another article talking about the same exact poll as the news last week, you haven’t backed down from your trend conclusion.

Let me put it clear as day in case you’ve missed the many other attempts:

ONE POLL IS NOT ENOUGH TO IMPLY A TREND.

Come back when there’s an actual trend, and you’ll find that many, myself included, will be a lot more receptive to that possibility because we are not burying our heads in the sand like you are assuming. It’s just that at this time, there simply is not enough data to draw that conclusion.

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 10 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

That's a reasonable concern, but there are strong indicators that the electorate is very different now.

Again, Democrats have been massively overperforming. That means that in special elections since 2020 - and in the midterms in 2018 and 2022 - the polls underestimated Democratic support significantly. The same can't be said of the special elections preceding Kerry's loss. And it's important to take note of who is turning out in unexpected numbers: Young people, who are notoriously hard to poll due to the fact that they don't answer calls from unknown numbers.

Add to that the fact that Republicans have been killing themselves in record numbers by refusing to vaccinate during a global pandemic.

I'm by no means convinced Biden has a lock on the win. But especially more than a year away from the election, I'm not going to buy into the doom and gloom, either.

[-] TechyDad@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

Also, we've got to factor in the Electoral College. Yes, it's outdated and should be gotten rid of, but until it is gone, it's how you win elections. Given that, national polls really don't say who will win. You can win every national poll, but get crushed in the Electoral College.

If at this time next year the state level polling says that Trump (or whomever the Republican nominee is) will win, then I'll be worried. Until then, I'm not going to panic because a couple of polls that may or may not be outliers say Biden is losing to Trump nationally.

[-] blorbo 19 points 1 year ago

this isnt a second poll clustering with the first one. its the same poll people were talking about on sunday, when it came out: https://nypost.com/2023/09/24/trump-scores-10-point-lead-over-biden-poll/

[-] NatakuNox@lemmy.world 5 points 1 year ago

Polls have been off the past few elections. Polls said Romney, Clinton, and Trump would win the last three elections. Soooooo Ya let's not put too much weight in these.

[-] alabasterhotdog@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 year ago

This simply isn't true.

[-] chakan2@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago

There's a trend there we should all pay attention to.

[-] NatakuNox@lemmy.world 9 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Not saying don't be vigilant when it comes to voting but polling is still using 1940s rationalization when it comes to who they poll. Young people don't pick up calls, so they are vastly under counted here.

[+] chakan2@lemmy.world -6 points 1 year ago

Ask Bernie how the young vote turned out.

[-] NatakuNox@lemmy.world 14 points 1 year ago

Bernie was stabbed in the back by the DNC. NOT VOTERS

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

Eh, he was kinda stabbed in the back by young voters. I know several people who worked in Washington state's primaries. They wanted Bernie, but discovered that while his supporters could be counted on to show up for protests and rallies, they couldn't be counted on to actually register as Democrats so they could vote in the primaries.

Fortunately, young people seem to have learned their lesson in the last few years.

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml -5 points 1 year ago

Being fair to young people in Washington, by the time the primary got to them the fix was in and it was already clear Biden was going to win imo

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

Please describe the "fix" and how it would have been effective if young people had showed up to vote in the primaries for Bernie.

The problem here is that most states don't allow people who aren't registered as a member of a party to vote in that party's primaries. And Bernie attracted a lot of attention from independent young people who didn't want to affiliate with the Democratic party.

Like it or not, that independence bit them in the ass, because they could rally and chant and protest and send money to his campaign, but they couldn't vote. Meanwhile, more pragmatically-minded people who knew they couldn't vote in primaries without being registered as Democrats all lined up behind Biden, registered, and voted.

It didn't thrill me. Biden was last on my list, and my preferred candidate was Elizabeth Warren. Bernie was #2 on my list. But when I talked to my pro-Bernie friends, I knew - and so did they - that Biden was going to win, because his supporters registered and turned out to vote.

Since then, young people have clearly smartened up and recognized the same problem. They're showing up to vote in every election, and it's causing Democrats to overperform and beat the polls. I absolutely love to see that.

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml -4 points 1 year ago

Please describe the “fix” and how it would have been effective if young people had showed up to vote in the primaries for Bernie.

Well first they sabotaged the Iowa caucus with the Shadow App, giving a victory to an absolute nobody.

Then Bernie kept winning the early contests. So, all the other centrist candidates dropped out to form Voltron behind Biden while Warren stayed in as a center-left spoiler candidate.

Bernie never stood a chance.

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

You're getting the 2016 and 2020 primaries confused. The "Shadow App" thing happened in 2016. And it didn't give Iowa to a "complete nobody," but to Pete Buttigieg. Biden didn't even run in 2016, and the app for reporting vote totals wasn't used in 2020.

Furthermore, you just described strategy, not a "fix." If the centrists coalescing behind Biden had the numbers to win, that means Bernie didn't. And he might have, if young people had registered as Democrats and voted. But they didn't.

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml -5 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

You’re getting the 2016 and 2020 primaries confused. The “Shadow App” thing happened in 2016. And it didn’t give Iowa to a “complete nobody,” but to Pete Buttigieg.

lolwut

It definitely happened in 2020 - Pete didn't even run in 2016! And he is a nobody, he was a mayor with no other prior office and he never won another contest.

Furthermore, you just described strategy, not a “fix.”

When the entire DNC covertly coordinates together in a strategy to stop a single candidate, it's a fix. That's not a strategy that any candidate could ever use, that's the whole Party working together to stop an outsider.

That, plus the Shadow App (which definitely happened in 2020 wtf I live in iowa I would know!) were what convinced Bernie supporters to stay home after Super Tuesday.

And it's why I'm voting for Cornell West. The Democratic Party is not the path to socialism, we can not ever change it from the inside... I mean the Green Party isn't a path to socialism either, but at least it pisses off Democrats 😘

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

Yeah, I'll take my lumps. I fucked up. Had both primaries open in different tabs, mixed them up, along with a news story about the app (it was developed in 2016, but you are right that it was used in 2020).

Still, gotta disagree with you on this:

When the entire DNC covertly coordinates together in a strategy to stop a single candidate, it’s a fix. That’s not a strategy that any candidate could ever use, that’s the whole Party working together to stop an outsider.

That's not what happened. A bunch of candidates who had no chance dropped out when they were polling at negligible levels of support. It's not like they suddenly added huge percentages of support to Biden.

And it’s why I’m voting for Cornell West. The Democratic Party is not the path to socialism, we can not ever change it from the inside… I mean the Green Party isn’t a path to socialism either, but at least it pisses off Democrats

Ah. So you're a Trump supporter. Got it.

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml -3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

A bunch of candidates who had no chance dropped out when they were polling at negligible levels of support. It’s not like they suddenly added huge percentages of support to Biden.

Right before Super Tuesday? While Warren stayed in to play center-left spoiler? Naw, there was pressure coming from inside the Party to coalesce around a single candidate to stop the socialist. I can't speak to the others, but we know that Obama told told Pete to drop out and endorse Biden, and then Pete was rewarded with a post. Pete, who if you recall, "won" the Iowa Shadow App caucus. Sus

Ah. So you’re a Trump supporter. Got it.

Eat my ass.

The Democratic Party made it clear to me that my vote doesn't matter when they wrecked our caucus. They fucked Iowa Democrats out of having a say in the nomination process, and now they want my vote? Fuck off. I'm a revolutionary communist, it's been made very clear that I'm not welcome in your party, and I'm not going to play voteball with a team that stabs people like me in the back when we get in the way.

I don't even think my vote matters. I literally just want to make Democrats mad. Nyaa nyaa~

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

Eat my ass.

Nah.

I don’t even think my vote matters. I literally just want to make Democrats mad. Nyaa nyaa~

Like I said: Trump supporter.

Whether you like it or not - and I'm sure you don't - any vote for a third party in a state that doesn't have Ranked Choice (RC) voting is a vote for the guy you hate the most. And if that irks you, take it up with MATH, because that's what you're fighting against.

Let's say you've got two major parties, the Kissing Puppies party and the Kicking Puppies party. Along comes a third party, Snuggling Puppies. Now let's say in an election, the Kickers get 33.4% of the vote, the Kissers get 33.39% of the vote, and the Snugglers get 33.21% of the vote. Well, guess what? If you live in a state with First Past the Post (FPTP) voting, the Kickers just won.

So yeah. Trump supporter. Because that's what you'll get if enough people switch from voting Dem to voting Green (or whatever) in FPTP elections, a Trump second term. You are the Republican party's favorite "queermunist," because they understand math.

Maybe you can afford to be that. I can't. I have two kids, both LGBTQ+, and I have to look out for them, which means doing everything I possibly can to ensure Donald Trump never sees the inside of the Oval Office again.

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml -3 points 1 year ago

Like I said: Trump supporter.

Whether you like it or not - and I’m sure you don’t - any vote for a third party in a state that doesn’t have Ranked Choice (RC) voting is a vote for the guy you hate the most. And if that irks you, take it up with MATH, because that’s what you’re fighting against.

Yeah yeah I've heard it all before - but by this logic, every dollar you don't donate to Biden is a dollar donated to Trump. Every hour you don't spend volunteering for Biden is an hour you volunteer for Trump. There's no difference. Either you do everything you can to help Biden beat Trump or you are the reason Trump gets elected. This "if you're not with us you're with the enemy" cult shit is logically inconsistent and isn't going to work on me anymore.

Fuck that. The only people who should be blamed for Trump getting elected are the people who vote for him.

Maybe you can afford to be that. I can’t. I have two kids, both LGBTQ+, and I have to look out for them, which means doing everything I possibly can to ensure Donald Trump never sees the inside of the Oval Office again.

I'm a trans woman and an open communist, they'll probably try to fucking kill me in a "conversion therapy" death camp.

But you know what? If Democrats win I just get to die slower; do I get to die in nuclear Armageddon because of brinkmanship with China and Russia, or do I die when climate change destroys our habitat, or do I just work for the rest of my life until I die at work? No matter which party wins, as a working class woman my life has no value and no hope. Nothing will fundamentally change.

I can no longer be bullied or terrified into voting for my oppressors, just because they happen to be the lesser of two evils.

[-] kescusay@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago

Yeah yeah I’ve heard it all before - but by this logic, every dollar you don’t donate to Biden is a dollar donated to Trump. Every hour you don’t spend volunteering for Biden is an hour you volunteer for Trump. There’s no difference. Either you do everything you can to help Biden beat Trump or you are the reason Trump gets elected. This “if you’re not with us you’re with the enemy” cult shit is logically inconsistent and isn’t going to work on me anymore.

Bullshit. What the actual fuck is that response? There's a ton of difference. We don't have FPTP lives, where your only options are "do something that helps Biden" and "do something that helps Trump." FPTP only applies to voting itself. It's fucking bizarre to make the analogies you're making. They don't work at all.

Fuck that. The only people who should be blamed for Trump getting elected are the people who vote for him.

Ideally? Sure. But shit in one hand, put your ideals in the other, see which one fills up faster. Unfortunately - and I really do mean that - our election system is a bunch of antiquated bullshit that guarantees whoever gets a plurality of votes wins, and if you don't want fascists winning, you vote for the non-fascist who can get that plurality. To fix that, push for RC voting at the state level.

I’m a trans woman and an open communist, they’ll probably try to fucking kill me in a “conversion therapy” death camp.

And yet you're voting in a way that helps the ones who want to kill people like you - and people like my trans son. Very little in life is a zero-sum game, but FPTP elections are. In those, anything that isn't a vote for the person who can win empowers the asshole who wants you dead because of who you are.

But you know what? If Democrats win I just get to die slower; do I get to die in nuclear Armageddon because of brinkmanship with China and Russia, or do I die when climate change destroys our habitat, or do I just work for the rest of my life until I die at work? No matter which party wins, as a working class woman my life has no value and no hope. Nothing will fundamentally change.

What Democrats are you looking at?!? Russia's nuclear threats are empty, China doesn't want nuclear war either, and Democrats recently pushed through the largest environmental package ever. They're not perfect, by any stretch of the imagination, but you're behaving like they're Republican-lite, when they're demonstrably not.

I can no longer be bullied or terrified into voting for my oppressors, just because they happen to be the lesser of two evils.

I'm not trying to bully or terrify you. I just want you to think about my kids, and what kind of world they'll grow up in if guys like Donald fucking Trump cement their grips on power.

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml -4 points 1 year ago

FPTP only applies to voting itself. It’s fucking bizarre to make the analogies you’re making. They don’t work at all.

Yeah, which means donating to election campaigns and volunteering for election campaigns, because those things effect how people vote! You just want to find reasons to feel pride and self satisfaction over doing literally nothing at all.

You have done nothing to protect your children from fascism, but you don't want to think about that. Instead you act like playing voteball matters. Under Biden, my State has been targeting trans children and has legalized child labor. What the fuck did my vote for Biden in 2020 do to stop Republicans? Jack shit!

I’m not trying to bully or terrify you. I just want you to think about my kids, and what kind of world they’ll grow up in if guys like Donald fucking Trump cement their grips on power.

I'm sorry to be the one to tell you this, but under the two party system your children are going to die no matter what. How the fuck can you look at the direction things have been going, regardless of which party is in power, and conclude "everything will be fine if that dang Cheeto doesn't take the Whitehouse!"

We live in a spiraling shithole and we're all going to fucking die if things don't radically change - and that will never happe through elections.

Whatever. Your mind's made up.

For your kid's sake, arm yourself. No matter who wins, things are going to get much worse.

[-] MagicShel@programming.dev 0 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Bernie wouldn't have won the last election. I'd have been happy with him. I really kinda hoped for Warren. But if I recall correctly, Bernie lost more in black votes than he gained in youth votes. And in a general, being able to pin the word socialist (you and I know social democrat isn't the same, but the electorate is short on nuance) on him would've lost a huge chunk of the middle.

Yes, the DNC fucked Bernie and I was pissed all the way to the election, but once the results were in it was clear to me that they did the right thing because Bernie would've lost and we would've had another Trump administration and that might've ended democracy right there. Young people were never going to come out in unimaginable droves in the general if they wouldn't in the primaries. I want it to be different than it is, and I'm glad young voting is trending up because the future belongs to you folks, but it's not enough yet to pretend you can ignore the base of voters that would be pushed across the aisle.

I mean feel free to argue with me. Post proof of how I'm wrong because I'd like to be, but I don't think so.

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml -3 points 1 year ago

Bernie has tremendous support in the deindustrialized parts of America, which is where Trump is strongest. That would have thrown everything up in the air and the outcome is uncertain. We'll never know now, I guess.

[-] K1nsey6@lemmy.world 1 points 1 year ago

The DNC did that, not voters, thats why they kneecapped him early 2016, he was projected to win by a landslide

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 4 points 1 year ago

I feel this needs to be said every time there's a national poll like this...

We don't have national elections. We have a bunch of state by state elections, and as Al Gore and Hilary Clinton proved, it doesn't matter how many people vote for you if you don't win the right states.

We won't really know the score until the Republican primaries and we can compare the votes in 2016 and 2020 vs. now.

I've got a chart ready to go, I just need numbers. 2016 Trump Primary vs. 2016 Trump General vs. 2020 General vs. 2024 Primary.

[-] randon31415@lemmy.world 4 points 1 year ago

Every republican I talk to says they want Biden out, but they aren't supporting Trump, cause "he turned out to be as crazy as the democrats".

[-] ivanafterall@kbin.social 3 points 1 year ago

"I don't like him, but I feel like I'd have to hold my nose and vote for him..."

[-] Melkath@kbin.social -1 points 1 year ago

We like Biden almost exactly as much as we liked Hilary. Meaning, the vast majority of us don't because they are soulless life long party politicians.

At least Biden doesn't need to overcome the fact that he was a life long Republican until his wife became president, then he was suddenly a democrat with no noticeable policy changes.

The American people are done with Republicans and Democrats (IE: The Party), and Trump has carried over a ton of Republicans into his currently non-party camp.

I think Biden is going to go up against a new dumbass, and Trump might get through to end America.

Bernie should have never kissed the Democrat ring.

this post was submitted on 28 Sep 2023

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