Highlights: The results of Poland’s parliamentary elections held on Oct. 15, 2023, have been lauded as a blow against populism – and they may also hold important lessons for reversing democracy’s decline.
In the vote, the conservative and increasingly autocratic Law and Justice Party (PiS), which has ruled since 2015, still received the largest number of seats (35%) in Poland’s Sejm, the more powerful lower house of parliament.
But it was not enough to form a majority. Instead, it looks likely that the progressive Civic Platform will join forces with the Third Wave and New Left, which together received 54% of the votes.
The PiS government used the elections as an opportunity to simultaneously hold a national referendum, asking voters to answer questions about migrants, border walls, the retirement age and the selling off of state assets – issues known to be unifying for its supporters.
PiS also used public media to criticize the opposition. State TV, newspapers and social media – which critics say has, over the preceding eight years, stopped being pluralistic and independent – consistently misrepresented facts and attacked the opposition, often with outlandish allegations. In addition, exploitation of state-owned companies and public funds gave PiS a “clear advantage” going into the polls.
Here are five factors that contributed to the Polish election result – and could have implications for other countries faced with democratic backsliding.
- Voters showed up
Poles took the elections seriously. With almost three-quarters of the electorate voting (74%), the turnout was unprecedented in recent times. It was even higher than the first free elections after the fall of communism in 1989. In fact, this was the highest voter turnout since 1919, a year after Poland emerged as an independent country.
- Women mobilized
For the first time in Poland’s history, more women than men voted. Almost 75% of eligible women voted – a 12% increase over 2019. In comparison, 73% of eligible male voters cast a ballot.
The election also saw a record number of female candidates (44%) and the largest percentage of women (30%) voted into Poland’s Sejm.
The growth in the women’s vote follows a period of increased feminist activism in Poland.
- Young people mobilized
Young Poles also participated in elections in record numbers, demonstrating that while young people might be seen to be dissatisfied with democracy, many of them still show up to vote. Among voters under 29 years of age, 69% turned out compared with 46% in the previous elections in 2019 – a 22% increase. In fact, more people under 29 voted than people over 60.
- The role of civil society
The number of civil society organizations is only one way to gauge the strength of civil society. PiS worked to shrink the space for civil society activism by reducing funding to certain organizations, resulting in a decline in the number of groups.
But, as I explore in my research, such efforts simultaneously pushed activism online and fueled political and social engagement in other ways that are often harder to see.
- The economy matters
Much of PiS’ tenure in government has coincided with significant economic growth in Poland. This allowed the government to provide monthly stipends for families to reduce child poverty, restructure the tax system to benefit the poor, and invest in rural Poland.
Yet earlier in 2023, Poland’s inflation was over 18%. With prices for food up by 24% and costs for housing, gas and electricity up by 22%, Poles – especially those on fixed incomes, many of whom were PiS voters – were unable to pay their bills.
By my count I used about half the words from the actual article, in case a mod is curious