[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Yes, if the president stops being president, for any reason, the VP becomes president. That's what I'm saying would be incredibly sad.

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Failing to run the incumbent was the bad strategic move

It was the end of Obama's 2nd term, and he couldn't run again. There was no incumbent.

If you’re just thinking about getting a Democrat in the office? Biden was the play.

Biden would have had the same chance in 2016 as Hillary. The entire reason Obama beat Hillary out in the 2008 primary was that people didn't want another white Centrist. The reason Biden won in 2020 was because of Trump, not because he was a good choice. He barely won.

run your incumbent in elections. The odds do, in fact, matter.

Didn't work out for Trump, since he was so unpopular. Biden is also basically there, he's just less hated than Trump. But this time, a lot of people are going to sit out if they're not invigorated (as they were invigorated against Trump in 2020).

The actual odds

It's very convenient to wave your hand and make nebulous claims about the "actual odds" without any evidence. Polling is no longer mostly done via cold calls, it's mostly internet surveys, or via services that have paid-to-participate groups that are easy to control for, demographically.

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Uh, what was? Running Hillary? I agree. Giving her control of the DNC before the primary? Also agree.

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 1 points 2 days ago

But how could we realistically get to them? Biden says he is running and how’s that going to change?

By making the larger conversation about "Biden needs to step aside", rather than being half split between "we need to all align behind Biden". There's still 4 months, and the convention hasn't happened.

And man, how fucking sad would it be (even if it would be very American) for our first woman president to get there by an old white guy dying and she being the default replacement?

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Harris - if Biden steps aside right now, Harris would be the presumptive replacement without actually needing to wait until the convention.

Buttigieg - already has national recognition and is a proven effective and persuasive speaker- he literally gets sent on Fox News to debate them because he's so cogent and fast that none of their talking heads can beat him, and if Biden exits and it does go to an open, televised, convention, he would be well-positioned to invigorate the base

Whitmer - less name recognition for her policies, she is a strong speaker, and doesn't have the baggage that e.g. Newsom does (although to be fair it's not Democratic baggage, it's anti-California Republican rhetoric)

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 6 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

There was a primary

The rules are already set up to where any challenger has an equal structural change of winning the primary.

Man, you've got some hilarious jokes. Tell me, during an incumbent primary, who controls the DNC?

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/biden-democratic-primaries-rules/

https://www.vox.com/2023/9/12/23868230/biden-democratic-primary-challenge-polls

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Your argument is literally to give up and sit on your hands and just hope and pray that no one notices we're putting a senile individual into the most powerful job position in the world. Oh, and whatabout Reagan.

Biden is one man and it is the Biden administration.

The cabinet and administration are not there to Weekend at Bernie's the President.

And really let’s say you are right about Biden. Then we get to chose between two people in the same boat. One’s a dangerous narcissist and one is a good man.

Who is no longer in full control of his faculties. Which is a horrible choice. You're arguing against trying to make that choice something else.

if there was a younger stellar dem candidate who could viable take on, ok then

There are, but no matter who anyone says, you'll write them off for one reason or another.

This is not strategy or sound reasoning, it's fecklessness. It's fear of making the wrong choice, so you'd rather walk away from the trolley switch and wash your hands of it. When Biden loses, all the people arguing for him to stay in won't actually have to take any responsibility for their part in Trump being back in office. I'm sure they'll just find a way to blame everyone else- probably for "not being on-board" enough (which is exactly why Biden shouldn't still be running- candidates are supposed to be who people want running).

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 9 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Monarchy was obviously the wrong word, but I think their underlying point is correct; there is not supposed to be a Right to Rule in America.

No one deserves to be a president any more than anyone else, and treating an incumbent as though they do, without having to go through an open, democratic primary process, is to treat them as more deserving of future authority than other citizens.

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 7 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

The only way that anyone in government is trying to solve this is via more money to corporations. Pay them to switch to X. Buy Y from them to replace Z.

Carbon credits are a con. Solar and wind are great, but they don't actually solve emissions on their own; you have to mandate the closure of the non-green energy sources too. And lots of emission sources are not even being targeted at all.

On the upside, my Mini is gonna look awesome with armor plating, out on the dunes that used to be oceans. Shiny, and chrome!

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 17 points 3 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

I mean, yes? Just because it's a precedent here doesn't make it democratic.

It's literally a practice that denies or heavily suppresses having a healthy crop of new primary candidates to vote for, which makes the party much less responsive to voter sentiment changes.

8 years is a LONG time, and yeah, a lot of people who felt that a candidate represented them 4 years ago may not feel they do anymore, and they still deserve the same chance to democratically decide who represents them.

Without that happening in the primary, their only options are to get no say in their candidate, withhold their vote, or vote for another party, in the general election.

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 9 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

From his campaign saying it in 2019 and 2022, though he avoided making it a promise (not that a promise would mean anything coming from a politician anyways).

This was explicitly used as an argument to boost him over other younger candidates in the 2020 primary field.

[-] t3rmit3@beehaw.org 5 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

I will not accept his debate performance as an answer. Because, while it was horrible, he has had plenty of excellent speeches before and after.

That's not how mental decline works, my dude. It's not some steady progression, it happens in fits and episodes. But it only gets worse. Like forgetting that someone you wrote a statement of condolence for is dead, and calling for her at an event (Rep. Wolarski), or thinking that you just had conversations with people who have been dead for years (Mitterrand, Kohl)

If you legitimately have not seen someone go through this kind of mental decline, I am happy for you, because it sucks. My grandmother is getting really bad at this point, and it hurts to watch. But denying it and pretending these are just moments of normal forgetfulness rather than living in the past that is common for people in mental decline, is cruel and irresponsible.

Is he in a really terrible place right now? Doesn't seem like it. But neither was my grandmother just 2 years ago, and we're not choosing him for how is is today, we're choosing him based on how he might be the next 4 years.

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submitted 2 months ago by t3rmit3@beehaw.org to c/news@beehaw.org

A segment on The Hill that cites The Intercept and Democracy Now, and calls out the media downplaying credible accusations of IDF mistreatment of prisoners, including prior to Oct 7? Did I wake up in upside-down world today?

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submitted 2 months ago by t3rmit3@beehaw.org to c/politics@beehaw.org

With a network of decentralised cells in most states in the United States and European Union member countries, the Active Clubs movement has blended far-right extremism with mixed martial arts (MMA). By presenting a more palatable image to the public and combining its extremist ideology with exercise, fitness and MMA training, Active Clubs have widened their appeal to reach a much broader audience than traditional white supremacist groups whose members are often derided for being “keyboard warriors”.

By promoting healthy pastimes like weightlifting, kickboxing, and even hiking, the group centres itself around positive, shared activities. Active Clubs enthusiastically encourage their members to live healthier lifestyles, by avoiding tobacco and drug use, training daily, and even going for hikes. For many new members, Active Clubs initially serve as a vehicle for self-improvement where they can train and exercise amongst like-minded individuals.

Alongside this personal growth, the group gradually introduces its members to the movement’s ideology as their involvement deepens.

Active Clubs also maintain close affiliations with more traditional white nationalist and accelerationist groups like Patriot Front that have used violence in the past. In Canada, Active Clubs members are known to have simultaneously been members of designated terrorist groups, including the Atomwaffen Division.

As the US hurtles towards turbulent elections later this year, there is a significant risk that Active Clubs could serve as a combat-ready militia or “brownshirts” organisation prepared to intimidate voters at polling stations, debates, and peaceful demonstrations. With individual Active Clubs branches spanning most US states, the network has a broad geographic footprint that could lead to voter intimidation and election disruptions across the country.

Wikipedia: Active Club Network

GPAHE: Neo-Nazi Active Clubs Spreading Globally, Allying with Similar Extremists, and Taking to the Streets

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submitted 2 months ago by t3rmit3@beehaw.org to c/news@beehaw.org

Cindy McCain, the American director of the U.N. World Food Program, became the most prominent international official so far to declare that trapped civilians in the most cut-off part of Gaza had gone over the brink into famine.

“It’s horror,” McCain told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in an interview to air Sunday. “There is famine — full-blown famine — in the north, and it’s moving its way south.”

The panel that serves as the internationally recognized monitor for food crises said in March that northern Gaza was on the brink of famine and likely to experience it in May. Since March, northern Gaza had not received anything like the aid needed to stave off famine, a U.S. Agency for International Development humanitarian official for Gaza told The Associated Press

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submitted 2 months ago by t3rmit3@beehaw.org to c/politics@beehaw.org

But this, in fact, is what actual war looks like these days: Sometimes it’s a volley of 300 missiles and drones, and sometimes it is lean, targeted, and carried out covertly. Gone are the days of vast conquering armies and conventional military confrontations between two parties. So long as experts, the government, and the media worry only about a kind of war that is obsolete, it cannot see the war right in front of our faces.

Great article on the evolving face of warfare and how, as long-range and unmanned systems replace on-the-ground and manned conflict, people are assuaged into treating missiles and bombs being lobbed between countries as something "other" than war.

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submitted 3 months ago by t3rmit3@beehaw.org to c/politics@beehaw.org

An excellent interview from the journalist whose investigative reporting exposed the extensive use of machine learning systems by Israel to target Hamas members while at home with their families.

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submitted 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) by t3rmit3@beehaw.org to c/politics@beehaw.org

Democrats are meddling in Ohio’s Senate GOP primary at the 11th hour to boost Bernie Moreno, the candidate former President Donald Trump endorsed to face vulnerable Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Duty and Country PAC, a group affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, is spending over $2.5 million to air with a TV ad that heavily touts Moreno’s support from Trump and calls him “too conservative for Ohio.” It will begin airing on Thursday and is set to run through Tuesday’s primary.

The group is funded by Senate Majority PAC, the top Democratic outside group focused on Senate races. The apparent goal of the ad is to boost Moreno with GOP voters, and their interference in the race is a sign that they believe he would be the weakest candidate in the general election.

In a statement, Moreno campaign spokesperson Reagan McCarthy invoked Democrats’ general feeling in 2016 that Trump would be the easiest candidate for Hillary Clinton to beat. “The same thing is going to happen to Sherrod Brown this year,” McCarthy said.

This is such a playing-with-fire tactic...

If y'all wonder why we're constantly seeing races between the DNC candidates and extremist Trumpers, know that it's at least in part because the DNC is boosting them. "Don't vote for white supremacists" works better as a talking point if you make sure your opponents are white supremacists, but badly if your gambit doesn't pay off.

And guess what... they got what they wanted.

Trump’s endorsee, auto-dealer magnate Bernie Moreno, beat State Senator (and Cleveland Guardians co-owner) Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose decisively on March 19. With over 96 percent percent of the expected vote in, Moreno is winning just over half the total votes and leading by Dolan by 18 percent. It’s a broad-based victory, since Moreno is ahead in all of Ohio’s 88 counties.

Of course Ohio has 88 counties...

"Now it's on you, Ohio Democrat voters, to vote super hard to make sure a white supremacist isn't elected in the General!" - Sincerely, the SuperPAC that helped put a white supremacist in the General

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submitted 4 months ago by t3rmit3@beehaw.org to c/news@beehaw.org

Israel largely shut off entry of food, water, medicine and other supplies after launching its assault on Gaza following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel — allowing only a trickle of aid trucks through two crossings in the south.

After months of warnings over the risk of famine in Gaza under Israel’s bombardment, offensives and siege, children are starting to die.

The ultimate, intended outcome of Israel's humanitarian blockade of Gaza is beginning.

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submitted 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) by t3rmit3@beehaw.org to c/politics@beehaw.org
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submitted 8 months ago by t3rmit3@beehaw.org to c/politics@beehaw.org

Ohio voters approved a constitutional amendment on Tuesday that ensures access to abortion and other forms of reproductive health care, the latest victory for abortion rights supporters since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year.

Ohio became the seventh state where voters decided to protect abortion access after the landmark ruling and was the only state to consider a statewide abortion rights question this year.

“The future is bright, and tonight we can celebrate this win for bodily autonomy and reproductive rights,” Lauren Blauvelt, co-chair of Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights, which led support for the amendment, told a jubilant crowd of supporters.

The outcome of the intense, off-year election could be a bellwether for 2024, when Democrats hope the issue will energize their voters and help President Joe Biden keep the White House. Voters in Arizona, Missouri and elsewhere are expected to vote on similar protections next year.

Heather Williams, interim president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democrats to state legislatures, said the vote in favor of abortion rights was a “huge victory.”

“Ohio’s resounding support for this constitutional amendment reaffirms Democratic priorities and sends a strong message to the state GOP that reproductive rights are non-negotiable,” she said in a statement.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris issued statements celebrating the amendment’s win, emphasizing that attempts to ban or severely restrict abortion represent a minority view across the country. Harris hinted at how the issue would likely be central to Democrats’ campaigning next year for Congress and the presidency, saying “extremists are pushing for a national abortion ban that would criminalize reproductive health care in every single state in our nation.”

Ohio’s constitutional amendment, on the ballot as Issue 1, included some of the most protective language for abortion access of any statewide ballot initiative since the Supreme Court’s ruling. Opponents had argued that the amendment would threaten parental rights, allow unrestricted gender surgeries for minors and revive “partial birth” abortions, which are federally banned.

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t3rmit3

joined 1 year ago