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this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2024
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politics
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Nevada, Arizona and Georgia have been on the "R" side for quite some time now.
I'm not currently seeing a path where Biden can win. Last time it all came down to New Mexico.
This time? Michigan is the only bright spot.
Arizona - Trump +3 to +7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/arizona/
Nevada - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/nevada/
New Mexico - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
Georgia - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/
Pennsylvania - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Biden +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/
Wisconsin - Biden +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota - Biden +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/
North Carolina - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/north-carolina/
Here's what it looks mapped out:
Biden CANNOT LOSE either Pennsylvania or Michigan. He HAS to carry both to block a Trump win.
And how accurate has 538 been lately? Didn’t they have Clinton winning in 2016?
538 gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning in 2016, while a lot of other poll aggregators were giving him single digit chances.
Biden is unpopular and losing. He was unpopular and losing before the debate and he's still unpopular and losing. He barely beat an impeached Trump that oversaw almost a million Covid deaths and a wrecked economy in 2020, and that was when he could still string two coherent sentences together.
Why are so many liberals determined to bury their heads in the sand about this? The Democratic Party is casually coasting towards catastrophe.
Believe me, no one is burying their heads in the sand. The NY Times just spent like two weeks covering nothing but Biden’s age. I had to scroll down like 1500px to find the fucking French election results and I’m not even sure they bothered to send someone to cover the hurricane that wrecked multiple countries and hit one of the most populous regions of the country.
If you believe this is the most important election in our lifetimes and believe the polls and analysis that put Biden in a bad and worsening position, it's kind of the most important story in the country, if not the world. There's a reason it's like a 50% of all political discussions here.
It’s an important story! But The NY Times has beclowned itself by trying to create a narrative instead of just covering it. There were well over 200 articles and 99% were gossip or fanfiction masquerading as news stories. That’s an editorial decision, not a news-based one. They even made a whole graphic counting which Democrats have defected. (It was 6 house members and 0 Senators and governors.)
It kind of reminded me of when they kept writing articles saying the president of MIT still hasn’t resigned even though that was an utterly unimportant story. Just a bunch of articles about nothing happening.
Hmmm… I wonder if it has anything to do with all the non voting SJWs that show up every four years to demand bullshit they don’t even understand.
Also, it’s okay for them to be woefully wrong, as long as others are…. wronger?
"bullshit SJWs"
k lol.
Neat!
Removed, civility.
The mask is slipping.
What mask? The fact that I’m positioned right between willful ignorance on the far left, and willful ignorance on the far right- allows me to call it out as I see it. SJWs are known to speak a lot and say very little.
Your vote is what matters now. If you wanted change, you should have started working on that four years ago. It’s too fucking late now.
Either vote to keep democracy alive, or be part of its demise. We’re too late in the game to kiss asses.
The people complaining about SJWs are conservatives. I'm happy if you're going to be VBNMW in this election, but you're not on our team and have no business lecturing people who actually care about all these "social justice" things you think are annoying because learning new words is hard. "Enlightened centrist" is a political slur for a very good reason.
The people complaining about SJWs are people who see them for what they are.
Keyboard warriors. People who whine about shit all day on the internet- and do nothing about it.
It’s not a political stance to call them out. It’s just observation. I’m sorry this upsets you, but it’s better you hear it from someone….
Fucking lol man. You're a caricature.