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Five Just Stop Oil activists receive record sentences for planning to block M25
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2024
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Seems like a reasonable position to me. He's saying that the argument amounts to "may as well try" and that it doesn't get into specifics of what the actual material consequences of the action would be, which is a fair critique. He doesn't say that the argument is wrong, just that it's not fully explored.
And he is right that retaliation by the state is the only truly foreseeable consequence, and that is a big deal. It's the main reason to avoid picking fights with the state unless you're in a position to win those fights. What "winning" looks like is up for debate and depends on your goals, but you have to consider the response.
It sounds like this is a question that can only be answered with empirical testing.