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submitted 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Well, Iran and their allies' response may happen sometime this week and apparently they aren't talking to the US in order to negotiate how and where they will hit Israel (and Shoigu arrived in Tehran rather auspiciously), the Bangladeshi government just fell, F16s have been given to Ukraine, there are fascist riots in the UK, and Japan just had its worst stock fall since 1987 and seems to be taking several other countries/corporations with it. I don't really know where to look right now.


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[-] sempersigh@hexbear.net 54 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

I’ve been working a lot and haven’t caught up properly in awhile but what’s the deal with the delay with this Iranian response?

It seemed to me about a week ago that not only was it a sure thing, but there were also signals that this one was gonna be different as they were being a lot more guarded with their plans and it seemed like the prospect of war wasn’t even a dealbreaker.

Since then I’ve heard a lot of noise about how Iran has since tempered it’s potential response and seeks a response that doesn’t cross the line.

Perhaps there’s an internal debate within the Iranian elite upper echelons/military guys? I know the new Iranian president is from the more moderate wing and seeks closer ties to the west in the long run but I imagine the amount of pressure he’s under to not capitulate is extremely significant

[-] shitholeislander@hexbear.net 37 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

perhaps there are under-the-table communications going on which nobody but the higher levels of the governments involved are aware of. maybe efforts to actually reach some kind of mediation. the kind of war that we are on the precipice of would really be rough going for both the zionists and the Iranian government; an under-estimated factor in all of this, imho, is the severe internal strife within Iran and the fact that the Islamic Republic could easily be toppled in the midst of all-out war (even a righteous one)

Lebanon too is not in a great place at all either and no faction within that country actually wants the war to come with full force to their doorstep. Syria's govt is still widely unpopular and faces regular unrest not to mention the civil war hasn't ended. Egypt and Jordan don't want to deal with that shit either because of their own restive populations. etc. Yemen is probably the only actual state actor that has so little to lose that a war is feasible (hence they've been openly at war with israel for months already)

[-] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 37 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

The Iranian response in April also took two weeks to plan and execute, so it's no great surprise that the same thing would be occurring here. Nasrallah literally stated a couple days ago that the "delay" in the response was part of the response - to instill fear about when it would occur and how bad it would be. You can call that 100 copium rizzler skibidi or whatever """political analysts""" on twitter are saying, but Nasrallah has always been a very serious person and I've never seen him speak lightly.

Since then I’ve heard a lot of noise about how Iran has since tempered it’s potential response and seeks a response that doesn’t cross the line.

I am extraordinarily reticent about believing anti-Iranian rumors in the current media environment; Israel has done its utmost to try and divide the Resistance and their supporters.

There is obviously anxiety about starting a war with Israel, but I don't think they fear it. Several months ago, I remember a statement by Hezbollah that one of the key reasons why they haven't fully started a war is because Hamas has not given them the go-ahead - Hamas is leading the charge for Palestinian liberation and everything else is a support front.

I suppose here's the critical question, separate from any vibes or idealism: does the actions of Hezbollah over the last year align with them fearing a war with Israel, or not fearing it? The mass destruction of border infrastructure; forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of settlers? Does Iran literally striking Israeli military bases, more-or-less a first in the region, align with Iran fearing Israel or not fearing them?

In comparison: does Syria not doing as much to directly strike Israel align with them fearing Israel or not fearing them? I would argue the former in that case, due to Syria's deeply troubled situation.

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 36 points 2 months ago

what’s the deal with the delay with this Iranian response?

I think the longer the delay, the larger the response.

It seems very likely that this response is the spark of regional war and those involved are preparing for that.

[-] ItsPequod@hexbear.net 35 points 2 months ago

Me when the US announced earlier this week the attack would come thursday or friday and it is now saturday

[-] shitholeislander@hexbear.net 35 points 2 months ago

dont trust anything the great satan says

[-] EmoThugInMyPhase@hexbear.net 24 points 2 months ago

Biden pushed back Russia’s invasion every time their predicted day passed without anything happening for two weeks

[-] P1d40n3@hexbear.net 33 points 2 months ago

I think Iran is simply observing the Olympics ceasefire.

[-] EmoThugInMyPhase@hexbear.net 15 points 2 months ago

Probably a smart move because otherwise your athletes will have to travel back while bombs and drones are flying around, which could kill them and cause even worse humiliation and grief because this time it’s not a guest but a citizen.

[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 26 points 2 months ago

I'm my mind palace, it's that they are secretly shipping arms to a bunch of opposition forces in places like KSA, UAE, and Jordan, and are waiting till the guns arrive to let shit pop off.

[-] EmoThugInMyPhase@hexbear.net 18 points 2 months ago

Do they actually have opps inside of the gulf states? I don’t recall any internal conflicts since the cold war.

[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 15 points 2 months ago

They should, but I don't know if they do. The Eastern Province of KSA, where some of their largest refineries are, have significant Shia populations, including some areas with Shia majorities.

[-] Boredom@hexbear.net 15 points 2 months ago

Which Iranian is Killmonger?

[-] FungiDebord@hexbear.net 11 points 2 months ago

CNN reported/speculated that Iran was attempting to trade a retaliatory response for ceasefire; not sure why Bibi would do that, unless Biden finally stood up to him.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/08/middleeast/iran-israel-oic-gaza-deal-intl

[-] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 8 points 2 months ago

I found a Google AMP link in your comment! I've removed Google's spyware for you! :3

[-] Commiejones@hexbear.net 8 points 2 months ago

Iran has since tempered it’s potential response and seeks a response that doesn’t cross the line.

The first stage of the plan is to make the zionists afraid of the response, second is to maker them think there will be no response. Third will be to respond so hard that they think the response will never end.

this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2024
225 points (97.1% liked)

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