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this post was submitted on 01 Sep 2024
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The sad thing is, it is not futile. They are gaining ground.
The cost might be high, but the highway is in sight and cutting the main lines between the eastern supply hubs would be strategically important.
The long term cost of the losses could be offset by pressing Ukranians from occupied territories into service as laborers and cannon fodder. It is gruesome.
I understand where you are coming from, but to call it that Russia is gaining ground is very subjective, Russia has been pushed back in several areas they took early on, Around Kiev, Around Kharkiv, around Kherson, just to take the VERY broad strokes. Currently Russia is gaining ground slowly on the east front, but not much anywhere else. While Ukraine has taken a small piece of Kursk.
I'd call that mostly a standstill, and Ukraine is refraining from taking territory back currently to save ressources, as attack is way more expensive than defense.
So yes I maintain that what Russia is doing is futile, because the cost are too high, their economy cannot handle to continue this kind of pressure.
Russia is probably hoping Trump will win the election in USA, but as I see it, even that will not open the way for victory for Russia. Other Ukrainian allies will probably step up more, and although possibly not fully cover the loss of American aid, it will be enough to help Ukraine to victory.
Remember Ukraine has still only gotten 10 out of 79 F-16, none of which are from USA. Europe cannot allow Russia to win if we can prevent it. And as long as Ukraine keep up the fight, Europe will keep helping them.
So yes the Russian war is futile, the losses are for nothing, except causing the Ukrainian people pain.
Kyiv
That 'small piece of Kursk' is more territory than Russia has gained between their Kharkiv withdrawal and subsequent slow grinding offensive.
The losses are for less than nothing. Even with their seemingly inexorable advance they've lost overall territory and fighting ability relative to Ukraine. I still project Russia has maybe 2 years tops of fighting left but so long as Ukraine limits their withdrawal rate to what we've seen of late they will win.
Yes sorry, I used the old Danish way of writing it.
That's a tough call, I think if Harris win the election and congress, this could be over sooner, like next summer but 2 years tops.
But if Trump win the election, Putin might declare war, which will enable him to sacrifice more than twice the personnel they've been doing for the past few months.
And Ukraine may have to do with less help than they are getting now.
But even then, the Russian economy is strained to the limit already, so they might not be able to increase their effort even if they declare war, and the Russian economy could easily collapse within 2 years.
So yes, I think although it's hard to say for sure, it's very likely that Russia can't take more then 2 years more of this. I'm pretty certain that already in ½ a year, we will begin to see that Russia is getting weaker. Next year around this time, if USA keeps helping, I'm pretty sure Ukraine will have a decisive advantage.
I agree with the sentiment, but we have to be very careful not to understate the seriousness of the situation Ukraine is in right now. The reality is they are losing ground every day. I agree it is a strategic choice on their part to exchange territory for Russian casualties at a favourable exchange rate but the offensive Russia has been focusing on is grinding forward steadily.
Let's hope the Russian offensive culminates soon, but it seems Ukraine may still suffer some significant territorial losses before then.
The good news is Ukraine has clearly shown they have some serious offensive chops this time around so hopefully they can continue causing dilemmas for Russia in Kursk and are primed to do as much damage as possible to Russia's offensive efforts at the right time.
This is indeed how I also see it. I also hope a bit that with the new reinforcements now sent to the east, Ukraine will be able to cut off the salient from the side. As it is a pretty risky strategy. If Ukraine can cut into it, all the offensive troops are cut off immediately.
I agree, every day of this war is a horrible injustice to Ukraine, they did everything they could to appease Putin and Russia, short of sacrificing their sovereignty. And even before the war, Ukraine was forceed to sacrifice Crimea.
But still Putin demanded they sacrificed their sovereignty completely.
I think it already has culminated. Although Russia keep pushing, it's at the cost of twice as many personnel as before, but they spend fewer than half the tanks and missiles, because they are running out of equipment. Even artillery they had absolutely massive amounts of, they now need to get from North Korea!
Allegedly Putin has been calling for a ceasefire for a while now, for instance sending first the Hungarian PM Orban, and India's PM Modi after to plead for a ceasefire on his behalf. They agreed on a prisoner exchange that vastly benefited the west, because Putin is probably being desperate.
Putin hates to show weakness like this, but he probably has no choice, maybe because the Russian economy is becoming extremely strained.
Maybe I just see what I wish to see, obviously I'm extremely biased (with good reason) in favor of Ukraine. But it does seem Russia is declining along the trajectory some maybe even many predicted already 2 years ago.
I'm with you, I could also be over correcting for my own pro Ukraine bias as well. I guess it's hard for any of us to know the true situation but let's hope your view is closer to the reality so we can see an end to this madness as soon as possible.
Yes, but you are still right we need to not understate the situation. We need to keep supporting Ukraine as much as we can until the end.
I read some times ago that russia can't go much further than mid 2025, and with what's happening it seems like if they do, it's a dead mans last jump of sort if they try to hang in there a whole more year.
Their economy is overheating and manpower for the war effort is drawn directly from the motor of the economy as they are already close to full employment. The state of their army also seems to be closer to exhaustion with less tanks, infantry vehicles and less trained soldiers. I'd love learning more about it all.
I hope they cruch and crumble faster ofc.