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this post was submitted on 04 Oct 2024
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How do you say she’s in track to lose. All the data I’ve seen makes me optimistic.
Safety for Democrats is leading in national polling by +10. Kamala isn't +5. She needs +5 to be break even due to structural issues like the electoral college and voter suppression. Her trajectory prior to, and through the convention supported her getting into the safety range. I think that because of what we've seen from the supreme court, this needs to be a blow out. We know republicans will be doing everything they can to steal/ cause chaos and confusion around results/ fail to certify etc. If it isn't violently clear from a major victory, this thing goes to Trump.
Its delusional to think that Kamala is on track for that kind of major victory, but as with Biden's performance and likelyhood of winning, self-delusion around their favorite teams ability to actually win seems to be Lemmy's kink.
538, which goes by electoral votes, has here winning 55 times out of 100. It's not an overwhelming win for sure and still not much better than a coin toss...but also not "on pace to lose the election."
538 is meaninglessly bad after Silvers exit. I get that you don't get it, but if Kamala doesn't "win by a landslide", which would be 55% plus in the national aggregate and winning basically all of WI/MI/MN/PA and at least one of AZ/NC/GA by numbers which do not warrant a recount, Republicans win.
They key that you need to understand is that break even, is actually losing badly for Democrats. The deck is literally stacked against them. And its going to be worse this time. Republicans realize that all they need to do is, if it comes down to one state, get that to the supreme court and they win. The Democratic path to victory has to be effectively uncontested/ insurmountable. Anything less and its Bush v Gore all over again.
That's the thing: there are no numbers which do not warrant a recount here in Georgia anymore. The MAGA elections board has passed rules that force them to do hand counts (which they can easily fudge to be slightly off), then use that manufactured discrepancy as an excuse to refuse to certify. Even if there are a fucking million more votes for Harris, ratfucking it so that one hand count comes out 1,000,001 and another comes out 1,000,000 will cause them to say "welp, something went wrong and the vote is invalid" and send fucking Trump electors anyway.
So write off GA. Harris has to win Either NC or AZ to make it such that TWO state level results would have to be forced to the SC. Whichever Sunbelt state +1.
It's hard. "Doing ok" isn't fucking good enough and the apologists willing to make excuses for Democrats at every turn are the very reason Democrats struggle so hard to do anything legislatively or electorally.
Polls were historically accurate in 2022. To say they are meaningless makes no sense.
I have my concerns about the election for sure. But you claimed she is on pace for losing, the numbers suggest otherwise. Your hand wringing is not a good replacement for actual analysis.
I am 100 not saying the polls are wrong. However 538 completely changed when Nate Silver left. They are a shell of their former self and their models are a joke. No one should be taking them seriously. The weights and polls 538 was including in it's aggregate has Biden to win when he was polling at 37%.
If you want good polllingnirnmodelinf silver bullets, nates personal project is far superior.
I am 💯 a polls nerd and check my posts for some analysis I've done.
Go back to the data on 2020. Biden under performed his polling across the board. He was leading and did win, but not nearly the the margins he should have.
Remember that the GoP is gunning to not certify election results so it goes to a Republican controlled SC that has been shown to be corrupt
I don't know what the threshold needs to be for the SC to behave, but it needs to be hit, whatever it is
What you just described is basically a statistical tie and worse odds than what 538 (regardless of it no longer being Nate Silver's original model) gave Hillary to win in 2016.
As I said, it's not much better than a coin toss. And what you just linked to has trump winning 35% of the time. If you say it is going to go one way 35% of the time and it never goes that way, your models are bad because it should have been 0%.
Also, polls were historically accurate in 2022.
Ah, goalpost-moving. I should have known.
Show me how I changed the standard?