The ground is moving fast under our feet. I think the social conditions that defeated Corbyn have already changed. When he was defeated you didn't have a peep in the American right wing sphere about being anti-war and now you have nearly all right wing talking heads and some elected officials like MTG going full anti-war in a way I've never seen in my lifetime. It doesn't matter if they're doing it for the wrong reasons. Its clear they're trying to take a populist position here, but it does create a vacuum in the space.

If the conservative wings can't find a populist message about NYC and instead keep hammering home this line of attack centered on Israel and his identity, they're going to suffer for it. Attacking his identity only shows their hand and only appeals to a narrow slice of people. Its like they've hit the tipping point on the idpol scale and people are done with aligning themselves purely on identity. They have 2001 era strategies still in 2025 and they forget that Oct. 7th happened in Israel, not America, and the average liberal in America has a short attention span. The bloodlust over Oct. 7th hasn't endured in the same way as 9/11. That history set the conditions that render its tactics and strategies inert for a wide band of people.

IDK, this is mostly vibe analysis, but I get the sense people in NYC seem hungry for something new after Eric Adams. Adams has deeply harmed status quo Democrats and harmed alignment on identity in NYC.

Mamdani's continued insistence on getting back to the issues when someone brings up Israel I think goes a long way. Its like a judo throw for interviews, taking the interviewer or debate moderators energy and redirecting it. Their inability to not ask him about Israel creates this paper trail that shows how little these people actually care about NYC.

Again, this is analysis is very much fueled by hopium, so take it for what it is.