this post was submitted on 25 May 2026
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Death to NATO
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So it's like i said, Russia is still holding back. Oreshniks are still not raining on the government buildings and Zelensky's bunker in the center of Kiev. How long this extremely restrained retaliation for increasingly brazen Ukrainian war crimes will still be accepted by the Russian population is the question.
I agree, the first use of Oreshnik was kind of shocking for the west, but this time nobody really cares. In fact, I'd argue western media got exactly what they were hoping for here. Since they didn't both covering the original attack that killed the students, they're just presenting it as Russia being unhinged and attacking Kiev completely unprovoked. All the burning buildings and smoke over the city make for great sob stories.
I expect that domestic political pressure in Russia is going to keep growing for a meaningful retaliation, and I suspect that sooner or later we're going to see a strike in Europe. As long as the war is confined to Ukraine, Europeans are not going to care.
Yep. I fear Russia needs to strike Europe to re-establish deterrence. Expose Article 5 as a bluff. The US is occupied in other regions it considers much more important. And without the US the Europeans are impotent. It's the only way to avoid a much larger and worse war later down the line if and when the Europeans grow too bold and delusional because they've been allowed to get away with too much.
Right now everyone in European power structures is convinced they can go on escalating attacks and provocations against Russia indefinitely thinking NATO is a magic impenetrable shield against accountability. European elites need a wake up call, to realize that they are not geniuses playing 5D chess and their reckless actions have consequences. It will also help the European population to wake up to the reality that their governments are dragging them into a war on their own soil.
So far their Russophobia has only had secondary consequences in the form of deindustrialization and an energy crisis, but making that connection requires thinking further than most people are willing to, so they just compartmentalize and separate those two things. They feel they can just keep cheerleading Ukraine and poking Russia from comfortable safety. Once there are real kinetic consequences many will change their tune.
The vast majority of Europeans have zero appetite or motivation to actually fight a war, they are far too comfortable and spoiled, they just want others to do the fighting for them while they watch on and root for "their team".
I'm guessing Russia is likely waiting to see what happens economically in Europe in the next few months due to the energy shortage. They might be figuring that if Europe goes into an economic crisis the problem might solve itself. But barring that, I think it's likely that there will be a demonstration strike at some point this year.