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Hej du ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ช๐บ you mentioned Russia and it benefitting from European division. This is actually something thats on my mind for quite some time now. The only nation benefitting from Brexit, Farage, Trump, Orban, Andrzej Duda, AfD, Le Pen, etc. is Russia. I never found any hard evidence or proof that their misonformation campain or is the reason for let's say Brexit, but it's hard to believe that it's all just an coincidence.
Personally, I'd like to forget the last 10 years and let the UK formally reenter the EU, but no half-assed cherry picking this time. We are all europeans and we need to stand and fall together.
Also, I am deeply afraid of the AfD movement in my home country Germany. A Dexit or Gerexit (?) would surely mean an end to all of Germanys exporting markets. And guess whose party's members regularly call for deeper integration with Russia? Yep.
There was evidence that Russia influnced the Brexit election heavily, and for instance Farage and Boris Johnson were supported by Russia. But weirdly since conservatives and even Boris Johnson became PM after the election, an investigation into the Russian influence was stopped.
We have seen Russian influence in many countries, positively proven in for instance USA, France, Moldova and Hungary.
We can only hope that when Russia lose the war against Ukraine, that Russia will focus more on restoring Russia than undermining Europe, USA and NATO. Although they may have succeeded in destroying NATO already.
AfD nearing 30% is worse than I expected just a few months ago. 30% is insane for a protest party in a reasonably functioning democracy. Clearly there must be issues that are handled very poorly in Germany by the traditional parties. The first that comes to mind is of course tightening of immigration. Because AFAIK that is one of the biggest points AfD is pushing.
But probably also issues for lower income workers, which AfD votes may be a protest against, although I bet it will quickly become worse if AfD actually got real influence, as they are an extreme right wing party.
I doubt Germany would leave EU, AFAIK EU support remains pretty strong in Germany, with roughly 70% of the German population viewing EU positively.
Even if Germans were somewhat unhappy with EU, it would be incredibly stupid to leave, my guess is that it would be even worse for Germany than it was for UK. But it would also be bad for EU, and could push Europe into a recession, causing a double whammy for Germany, with less share of a smaller market.
Regarding AfD all I can say is that in my own country we had a similar situation, but when the other parties woke up and reacted to the main problems, and after that party (Danish peoples party) got some actual influence, their popularity fell back to way more moderate levels. Hopefully this will happen in Germany too, before AfD becomes too dangerous.