Memes

I think your last point is pretty accurate. The US side has done a bunch of war games for a Taiwan invasion situation. In these games, the US side barely wins. To me, that's evidence the US probably loses. All of the Chinese decision making is done by US military people that think like the US military. If the PLA acts differently, they could easily be in a better position. Also, the Chinese capabilities will be based on US intelligence. Unless the Pentagon knows everything about missile ranges, warhead sizes, magazine depth, aircraft speeds and ranges, etc, they won't be able to anticipate a capability they didn't know about.

Probably most importantly, China has a vast industrial base and would be much closer to the fighting. All they really have to do is use up the US missile stockpiles and shoot down a few planes (probably while they're just parked in Okinawa). Once the war becomes about who can manufacture more missiles and planes to replace losses, there's no way the US will be able to keep up. If it becomes a protracted war, the US loses by default.