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My bet is on 1. I don't see a way for 3 to happen and 1 is a better outcome for Iran than 2.
It makes sense for Iran to sacrifice Lebanon now and use their control over the strait to pressure other countries to stop supporting Israel. They will not defeat Israel now but if this deal is implemented they have a chance to do it in the future.
Hard disagree. Right now I give 1 less than about a 5% chance. Iran have repeatedly demonstrated that they fully believe they have the US by the balls (they're right). And Iran stakes a lot of their regional power on their control over groups like Hezbollah. Abandoning one of them would be a huge blow. They're not going to resort to that unless they get desperate, and currently they're as far from desperate as they could possibly be. They have no reason to back down on this and plenty to lose by doing so. The only way that math changes is if Trump pulls out some crazy left field move to radically reshape the power balance. I don't think he's capable of that.
So what do you think will happen? The strait is closed permanently?
It's between the other two options. Either Trump commits to a full invasion, or he commits to a fight with AIPAC.
I'm about a 40/60 split between those right now. Theoretically Israel are backing down given their agreement to a ceasefire with Hezbollah today, but a) that doesn't mean they won't come for blood in the midterms, and b) there's a good chance they're playing nice until they can create some kind of false flag attack from Hezbollah as a pretext to resume hostilities and shit-can the deal.
Not the OP, but I think this issue will continue to rise in temperature until it is more heavily influential on US domestic politics. I believe at some point, support of Israel on these recent events will become politically suicidal, and slowly the compromised politicians rendered unable to break with Israel will get drummed out of office by primary or normal election.
Then, US will officially drop support and the math in the middle east gets a lot less complex for them.
This would take many years. I don't think Trump or Lebanon can wait that long, he seams pretty desperate. We already know he's unable to pressure Israel so his only option is to pressure Iran by doing something stupid. I really home Iran will take the huge win they already got and pass on Lebanon for now. The other options are pretty terrible for everyone.
I just dont see any useful results before then. For practically my whole life, the situation in the Middle-east has been unstable. It seems to me that the reason for this is because Israel has continually agitated its neighbors from behind a metaphorical force field provided by their larger international allies. The "force field" seems completely unearned, and is the result of diabolical lobbying/bribery and blackmail of powerful foreign politicians in the USA and elsewhere.
Until the circumstances change, I dont see a ton of reason to expect the conditions to, either. Moves will be made as always, but I expect more of this ineffectual war-play: retreat from hill today, re-take same hill tomorrow, repeat forever. All the while the waste and corruption in the military operations continue to flow.
I too hope for a return to prosperity for the Iranian people that I have seen from the 1970s and before, but I dont see that happening until the unconditional military pact with Israel starts getting some conditions.
Nah, it's forever war. That is the reason for this, not the stated ones, Israel is using it's epstein blackmail to keep war going for domestic political purposes. War is fun when you have overwhelming technological superiority and unlimited money.
That's certainly Israel's goal.
That said, Trump and Vance have now both progressed to openly threatening Israel in public, which suggests that either Israel haven't fully played their hand yet, aren't holding as much as we think, or have too much to lose from any blackmail material getting out in the open. Keep in mind that Epstein being an Israeli political operative cuts both ways; I'm sure there's a lot in those files that could seriously damage Israel if it got out. If it were publicly known that they were, say, trafficking children for political favour with US politicians, that's the sort of thing that could be really bad for them. Not saying that happened, but we've not got much reason to believe it didn't at this point.
If Israel had enough usable blackmail on Trump and his crew to get their way here, I think we'd already be two months into an invasion, not discussing US surrender. Why wait this long to use it if you have it?
Nah, Israel has the usuable blackmail, not just epstein stuff either to be sure. Invading Iran was never feasible, it would seriously take a million troops even for a half assed iraq style invasion, and Iran has mountains, and is 5x the size.
Israel doesn't actually care about Iran, they are a foil for their politicians. They know they've been lying about them for decades, and while they do want to hurt them, that is not their reason, forever war for domestic political purposes is.
This will not end, even when it seems like it ended, it will keep on, this is forever war, and Israel is going to turn lenanon into a series of ghettos.
Israel do care about Iran. It want is fully destroyed. It thought arming some protesters and factions like the kurd would have created an civil war
No, they didn't. They have betrayed the kurds a number of times, and knew they wouldn't trust them, rightly so.
You are confusing what the Israelis say they are doing with what they are actually doing.
Israeli media itself admit that the plan existed. The idf said it has small chance of succeed but leaders ignore warnings all the time. Netanyahu still wanted to do it. There is no PR benefits to admit a failure of a plan
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israeli-plan-for-kurdish-invasion-of-iran-reportedly-collapsed-amid-leaks-distrust/
You're correct, but I think what you're missing is that this has nothing to do with the political calculus currently taking place in the White House. If they were capable of realistically assessing military threats they wouldn't have been blindsided by Iran's ability to strike at their military bases or by the closure of the strait. Trump truly believes that the power of the US military is infinite. What's holding him back from an invasion isn't a fear of losing, it's a fear of the political cost of being seen to sign up the US to another decades long occupation.
Israel cares very much about Iran, because Iran is still a serious threat to them. They can have their forever war without Iran in the picture, they've got an almost unlimited supply of local adversaries to pick fights with. But Iran is currently by far the most dangerous of those allies to Israel, at least in Israel's estimation.
I was going to take issue with the calculus term you used, but as I believe calculus is measuring the area of probability curves, it might fit. The probability curve of fucking children on tape being released.
That said, Iran is not a real threat to Israel and we all know it. Iran can't do shit to Israel, that has overwhelming advantage. Any suggestion to the contrary is Israel playing their sheep.
To get back to the calculus, it has nothing to do with winning or stopping Iran from whatever. Why anyone would take them at their word at this point is beyond me, not the least on this issue.