Ukraine

I was kind of surprised to find that Russia actually doesn't have a whole lot by way of surveillance satellites (or at least didn't earlier in the war, when I was looking things up). I'd kind of assumed that they did

the Soviet Union was a front-runner with satellites

but I'd guess that it was an area that didn't get a lot of funding in recent years.

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So, this is from 2022:

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-satellites-ukraine-war-gps/31797618.html

In Russia's War On Ukraine, Effective Satellites Are Few And Far Between

Another big item on the list of problems: satellites -- there are too few of them, and too few with high-quality capabilities.

According to experts and open-source information compiled by RFE/RL, Russia has long been saddled with a small and inadequate fleet of communications and surveillance satellites that in many cases rely on either outdated technology or imported parts that are now harder to come by due to Western sanctions.

“In principle, Russia is already practically blind in orbit, " said Bart Hendrix, a Brussels-based analyst and expert on Soviet and Russian space programs.

According to a database maintained by the Union of Concerned Scientists, a respected U.S. nongovernmental organization, Russia currently has around 100 military or dual-purpose satellites. Nineteen of them are classified as remote sensing satellites, with technology allowing either optical photography or radio signal surveillance. The others serve other purposes.

Resolution Matters

Russia has two optical reconnaissance satellites in orbit now, called Persona, Hendrix said, but they were launched between seven and nine years ago, meaning they may be near the end of their working life.

Adding further to the problem: The maximum resolution of the Persona satellites is believed to be 50 centimeters per pixel, Hendrix said.

By comparison, the best American spy satellites, called Keyhole, are estimated to have a resolution of around 5 centimeters per pixel. At that resolution, the letter “V” which is being painted on the roofs of Russian military vehicles operating in Ukraine would be easily and clearly visible from the typical altitude where a spy satellite was orbiting.

Commercial satellite companies like Maxar and Planet typically have a maximum resolution of around 15 centimeters.

“The Americans have at least five Keyhole-12 satellites, the Italians, the French and the Spaniards have their own satellites, there are an order of magnitude more,” Hendrix told RFE/RL.

Russia has also lagged behind in building and deploying remote-sensing satellites whose radars can see through cloud cover, unlike optical satellites.

According to the Union of Concerned Scientists’ database, Russia has only one confirmed radar satellite in operation, called Kondor. It was launched in 2014, and with an expected lifespan of five years, it may have already ceased to be operational.

In February, Russia’s space forces launched another satellite, dubbed Kosmos-2553 or Neutron. Little is known about its purpose or capabilities, though it was built by Mashinostroyeniye, a Moscow military research institute which specializes specifically in radar-sensing satellites.

“If Neutron is a radar satellite, then this is the first such launch in almost 10 years,” Hendrix said.

My guess is that Russia can probably get access to satellite data from commercial providers in other countries, though

I would not expect, that China, say, is going to cut Russia off.

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https://www.kharon.com/brief/china-space-military-intelligence-iran-russia-rocket-satellite

Chang Guang had already been sanctioned by the U.S. in 2023 for the use of its satellite imagery by Russian forces in Ukraine, making the U.S. Treasury Department’s designation of the firm earlier this month under Iran-related authorities the second round against the company. Earth Eye was also sanctioned — for the first time — in the same action, as Treasury targeted both companies for aiding Iran’s military operations amid the war.