Socialism

Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale.

Yes, but as you realize, strikes deep inside Russia are dangerous primarily due to their impact on the media narrative, which undermines Russia's internal stability.

Did you see that a new Prigozhin has appeared recently? Peskov has already spoken about him. He is threatening Putin, just like Prigozhin did. This means the Russian elites have now gotten involved—exactly what we discussed earlier.

However, it seems to me that the situation inside Russia remains stable for now. Everything is still under control.

And that’s what’s happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.

Drones are buzzing constantly; yesterday they bombed a gas station where I used to fill up often. That’s what I heard.

For now, though, there are no shortages or panic buying of gasoline in the city. But the situation is worsening; Russia has changed its attack tactics. There have been up to two hundred drones a day—no more than that—for the past two weeks.

And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.

No, Comrade, I’m arguing from the opposite perspective—or rather, trying to strike a middle ground.

After all, the propaganda claims Russia is losing; I’ve never said that. Russia won’t lose, but it might not win.

It wouldn't have won anyway if the Anchorage agreements had been implemented! And those agreements looked nothing like a victory! They looked more like a disgrace.

That’s the premise I’m working from, not the propaganda.

In essence, I’m saying the same thing Putin is saying,

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6a411d079a79474cc1ecfd21

...except that, unlike Putin, I don’t have that rock-solid confidence that things will end well for me. Do you understand? For me! I couldn't care less if they celebrate an imaginary victory back in Russia—not if I’m still stuck in this "prison"!

By my count, this is already the fourth "difficult phase." They somehow overcame the first three—the "gesture of goodwill" near Kyiv, the retreat from Kherson, Prigozhin’s mutiny... and now, the strikes on oil refineries and Moscow.

Each of these "difficult phases" narrowed the scope of the Special Military Operation; eventually, it all shrank down to the size of the Donbas...

It’s as if time has dragged us back to square one.

I don’t think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there’s nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there’s no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.

The situation is a bit different now. Ukrainians have advanced and dug in at two locations; they’ve been building up their forces there for several weeks. The Russians can't dislodge them...

Wow... that was loud—those are guided aerial bombs; they fly in pairs. I'll find out later what exactly it was.

Anyway, back to the point.

Right now—let me repeat—right now, neither side has an overwhelming advantage!

I do think we’ll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we’re coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he’s the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn’t been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don’t have any new tricks to play here.

Also, how do I turn off this fucking Starlink!

And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.

At the moment, I don't see any signs pointing to that—though, of course, I could be wrong.

A strike would have to begin with a demonstrative nuclear test in an uninhabited area, followed by a broadcast to the entire world as a warning. Only then would the actual strike follow. Putin won't even commit to a demonstration. China might not like the idea.