Socialism

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I don't think these strikes undermine Russia's internal stability in any meaningful way. What they do is harden the opinion that Putin is not pursuing the war hard enough, and that there needs to be direct retaliation against Europe. At this point, I think it's a very likely scenario to unfold in the next few months if things keep going the way they are. They already named the factories in Europe, so we know what the targets will be.

I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting. First, they'll do a conventional strike with an Oreshnik, and if Europe doesn't get the message, it'll be a tactical nuclear strike next as a demonstration.

And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don't see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.

And AFU can dig in, but this has always worked out the same way. I see no reason to expect anything different this time, especially given how the manpower shortage is only getting worse.