this post was submitted on 10 Jul 2026
412 points (99.5% liked)
Not The Onion
21934 readers
1323 users here now
Welcome
We're not The Onion! Not affiliated with them in any way! Not operated by them in any way! All the news here is real!
The Rules
Posts must be:
- Links to news stories from...
- ...credible sources, with...
- ...their original headlines, that...
- ...would make people who see the headline think, “That has got to be a story from The Onion, America’s Finest News Source.”
Please also avoid duplicates.
Comments and post content must abide by the server rules for Lemmy.world and generally abstain from trollish, bigoted, ableist, or otherwise disruptive behavior that makes this community less fun for everyone.
And that’s basically it!
founded 3 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Please, for the love of God, do not conflate prediction markets with polls.
The majority of the general elections I have lived through (it's been a few) have been called more accurately by the bookies than the polls.
They say people skip to the finance section of the paper for the actual news
Ironically, you've confused a conversation about odds with one about polls.
It's not about polls. We're talking about betting odds here. This is a gambling conversation. They said that Count Binface winning is paid 4:1, meaning an implied probability of 20%. I asked who is paying that, because it seems like that's far too low of a payout, giving Count Binface too high of an implied chance of winning.
If a candidate is being beat 4:1 in the polls, their betting odds would probably be 100:1 or higher.
Well hey a bunch of news outlets have been doing that so why shouldn’t I?