this post was submitted on 20 Oct 2025
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China
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I expect that it will be a peaceful reunification unless the US crosses a red line like putting missiles that can hit mainland in Taiwan. CPC knows that time is on their side, and they're perfectly willing to wait things out.
And from my understanding it would almost certainly be a 2 systems style arrangement where China will let Taiwan to keep doing its thing as long as it doesn't interfere with national security. Taiwan will almost certainly follow the model of HK reunification.
I can't see why the US wouldn't attempt this as the situation gets more desperate as more of their efforts fall flat. All historic behavior indicates that the US is willing to gamble on escalating in the face of nuclear annihilation.
It's certainly possible, and that's the most concerning part about the whole thing. What it's going to come down to is whether the oligarchs would rather rule over a diminished empire or risk living out the rest of their lives like rats in a bunker.