Will I see Taiwan become a red island under CPC control in my lifetime?
this post was submitted on 20 Oct 2025
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It's highly likely.
The bigger question is will it be a peaceful reunification or will blood be spilled
The second question is how but that I would think would be another one china 2 systems arrangement? Its been a hot minute sense I did any real reading on this issue so correct me if I am wrong
I expect that it will be a peaceful reunification unless the US crosses a red line like putting missiles that can hit mainland in Taiwan. CPC knows that time is on their side, and they're perfectly willing to wait things out.
And from my understanding it would almost certainly be a 2 systems style arrangement where China will let Taiwan to keep doing its thing as long as it doesn't interfere with national security. Taiwan will almost certainly follow the model of HK reunification.
unless the US crosses a red line like putting missiles that can hit mainland in Taiwan.
I can't see why the US wouldn't attempt this as the situation gets more desperate as more of their efforts fall flat. All historic behavior indicates that the US is willing to gamble on escalating in the face of nuclear annihilation.
It's certainly possible, and that's the most concerning part about the whole thing. What it's going to come down to is whether the oligarchs would rather rule over a diminished empire or risk living out the rest of their lives like rats in a bunker.
If it does happen (hopefully a peaceful one), it will be many decades of dealing with reactionaries and descendants of Japanese colonists like with HK. Education would need to be revamped to properly teach about WW2 and would probably take a few generations.
KMT Redemption ark? Fuck! That would be a twist as big as Vader tossing Palpatine in the cuck pit.
The biggest thing if I remember right is that the KMT is far more in favor of a one china policy so they would be the ones more likely to negotiate an agreement for reunification.
Please correct me if I am wrong its been a while sense I read on this
Back in 1992 both sides met and the consensus was that there is one country, but both sides express it in their own way (PRC and ROC as one country, 2 different expressions).
After 1996 and the DPP's changes to their education system, they've gradually scrubbed away the identity of the younger generations so most do not identify with the mainland (many prefer to simp for war criminal Japan).
Nowadays the younger parts of the KMT still pay a little lip service, but their actions show that they're more for maintaining the status quo or even pushing towards covert independence.
Oh yeah I didn't think of it that way. Of course the KMT wants reunification... with them as the government of China.
Cheng was a pro-independence candidate years ago when the balance of power tipped against the mainland. As is the case with most of the modern KMT, they are mostly opportunistic and prefer the "drag their feet and silently tip towards independence" approach.
They lost the mainland in 49 and lost their grip on the province after 96, so one would not be too optimistic about them lol.
Reunification is the only rational path forward.
The KMT lost the last three elections but maybe she can give them a new spark
DPP is incredibly unpopular right now, so it's quite possible KMT might get back into power.