this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2025
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i don't even know anymore. i think the pain point of SNAP benefits would ordinarily break something loose, as would whatever the holy-shit is going on with still unpaid air traffic controllers when that finally shits the bed. that is when some pretty big political machines would step in and force a short term coalition of concessions everyone can take credit for. last time it was air traffic control stuff that pushed everyone to the table.
but, we passed the exit for ordinary a while ago with all the DOGE shit, the inspector general firings, and all the other "the executive isn't supposed to do this" crap with illegal buyouts, unlawful RIFs/firings and politicized restructuring. also, the unitary executive taking back the power of the purse (at least in terms of cuts) and the destruction of some huge programs i'd never thought i would see get the axe, like USAID. that was a keystone of the imperial machine and the intelligence apparatus, i thought it was a law unto itself with a perfect cover mission. but i guess baby huey managed to actually break some shit.
all that to say, i think the various players and powers that made up the old backroom deals are too dislocated for the typical mechanisms and back-channel conversations to happen. probably a lot of people with their own career aspirations are "over" trump steam rolling everything, so if it were me, i'd be inclined to step back from taking any initiative to let Mr. Deals go ahead and eat this shit sandwich he made.
i think the longest shutdown we've had before was like 35 days, which would be like 10 days from now to tie the record. 6 days until SNAP implodes.
Did snap break that other time too? It must have if 35 days
i don't think so, i believe it was later into the fiscal calendar (like December i think) so some programs had some portion of their operational funds available and could float a little longer.
this particular shutdown came exactly as the federal fiscal year ended (September 30)/began (October 1) again which is an administratively complicated time already, so i think that's why this one is resulting in more rapid degradation.
like the one-off troop pay thing is crazy, where they had to "find" funds from some pre-existing multi-year project agreement to repurpose. that's new.