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Image is of people passing through a road affected by landslides in Sri Lanka in the aftermath of the cyclone.


Over the last week, Sri Lanka has been hit by their worst national natural disaster since the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami. Over 2 million people (about 10% of the population) were affected; the death toll is currently climbing past 600; nearly a hundred thousand homes have been damaged or destroyed, transport infrastructure is heavily damaged; industry has been damaged; and farmland has been flooded. The cost of damage so far looks to be about $7 billion, which is more than the combined budget spent on healthcare and education in Sri Lanka.

While there is plenty to say meteorologically about how this yet another concerning escalation as a result of climate change (Sri Lanka does experience cyclones, but they are usually significantly weaker than this), it's important to note that such disasters are, to at least a certain extent, able to warned about and their impacts somewhat mitigated. However, this requires both access to early detection and warning equipment, and an economy in which development is widespread - in this case, particularly in the construction of drainage systems and regulated construction, which has not generally occurred.

The IMF, on its 17th program with Sri Lanka, is doing its utmost to prevent such an economy from developing, as they instead promote reductions in public investment. On top of this, the rebuilding effort for Sri Lanka is already being planned and funded, and such donors include, of course, many Sri Lankan oligarchs, who will rebuild the damaged portions of the country yet further according to their visions, while sidelining the working class.

Perhaps neoliberalism's decay into its eventual death occurring concurrently into the gradual intensification of climate change and renewed wars signifies the rise of the era of disaster capitalism.


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[–] Biddles@hexbear.net 18 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

The EU and UK hold over $2 trillion in treasuries. QE of that size would be massive at a time when the Fed is trying to lower inflation. It would be very painful for the US, and yields would certainly rise

[–] Kieselguhr@hexbear.net 16 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)
  1. This is just wrong
  2. EU wouldn't do it anyway, even they aren't that stupid
[–] Biddles@hexbear.net 16 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

What is wrong, exactly? If you're referring to fuckywucky's point 1, I agree lol, it is wrong

[–] Kieselguhr@hexbear.net 16 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Foreign treasury (=EU) selling US treasuries is not QE and QE does not cause inflation anyway.

[–] Biddles@hexbear.net 5 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

The Fed buying unscheduled treasuries is qe

[–] Kieselguhr@hexbear.net 2 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

QE is a deliberate monetary policy, it being scheduled is part of the definition

anyway even genuine QE is just an asset swap, it wouldn't cause inflation of your average basket of goods, it could only inflate a stock market bubble

QE is a terribly neoliberal policy btw, it's trickle-down economics

[–] Biddles@hexbear.net 1 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

QE directly lowers yields, which increases lending, and causes inflation. In any case, this type of policy would flirt with monetizing the debt, which would be taken as an inflationary signal

[–] Kieselguhr@hexbear.net 2 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

which increases lending, and causes inflation.

Not to be a dick about this, but you see, I've linked two long articles by non-neoliberal economists in my first post for a reason, I suggest you read them, it would be silly to quote it all out wouldn't it?

Here's a chunk anyway:

Does quantitative easing work? The mainstream belief is that quantitative easing will stimulate the economy sufficiently to put a brake on the downward spiral of lost production and the increasing unemployment.

It is based on the erroneous belief that the banks need reserves before they can lend and that quantititative easing provides those reserves. That is a major misrepresentation of the way the banking system actually operates. But the mainstream position asserts (wrongly) that banks only lend if they have prior reserves. The illusion is that a bank is an institution that accepts deposits to build up reserves and then on-lends them at a margin to make money. The conceptualisation suggests that if it doesn’t have adequate reserves then it cannot lend. So the presupposition is that by adding to bank reserves, quantitative easing will help lending.

But this is a completely incorrect depiction of how banks operate. Bank lending is not “reserve constrained”. Banks lend to any credit worthy customer they can find and then worry about their reserve positions afterwards. If they are short of reserves (their reserve accounts have to be in positive balance each day and in some countries central banks require certain ratios to be maintained) then they borrow from each other in the interbank market or, ultimately, they will borrow from the central bank through the so-called discount window. They are reluctant to use the latter facility because it carries a penalty (higher interest cost).

The point is that building bank reserves will not increase the bank’s capacity to lend. Loans create deposits which generate reserves.

The reason that the commercial banks are currently not lending much is because they are not convinced there are credit worthy customers on their doorstep. In the current climate the assessment of what is credit worthy has become very strict compared to the lax days as the top of the boom approached.

The major formal constraints on bank lending (other than a stream of credit worthy customers) are expressed in the capital adequacy requirements set by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) which is the central bank to the central bankers. They relate to asset quality and required capital that the banks must hold. These requirements manifest in the lending rates that the banks charge customers. Bank lending is never constrained by lack of reserves.

We should be absolutely clear on what the BOE is doing. It is buying one type of financial asset (private holdings of bonds, company paper) and exchanging it for another (reserve balances at the BOE). The net financial assets in the private sector are in fact unchanged although the portfolio composition of those assets is altered (maturity substitution) which changes yields and returns.

So I don’t think quantitative easing is a sensible anti-recession strategy. The fact that governments are using it now just reflects the neo-liberal bias towards monetary policy over fiscal policy. What will motivate consumers to borrow if they are scared of losing their jobs? Why would a company borrow if they expect their sales to be depressed? The problem is a failure of demand which has to be addressed via demand measures – that is, fiscal policy. Overall, you can only take a horse to water ….!

It's not even that long I guess...

[–] Biddles@hexbear.net 1 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Lending doesn't increase because reserve constraints are relaxed, lending increases because it is cheaper to borrow. So a shock to interest rates, holding inflation constant, lowers the price of borrowing money, which increases the demand for credit

In any case, the mechanism here isn't so much what QE does to interest rates, but what it does to beliefs about the safety and soundness of US debt. If the EU shows it is abandoning the Treasury market, and the Fed shows it is willing to monetize the debt, interest rates will rise, because treasuries will be viewed as less safe. I don't think the market collapses, but I do absolutely think rates will rise if EU/UK starts a fire sale of the 2+ trillion in treasuries that they hold

[–] Kieselguhr@hexbear.net 1 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

lending increases because it is cheaper to borrow

on the aggregate: no, since you still need creditworthy borrowers which needs assets and cash flow, which won't come unless it comes from the government sector or the external sector

but what it does to beliefs about the safety and soundness of US debt. ... because treasuries will be viewed as less safe. I

What does "less safe" even mean?
Theoretically there could be stupid people who think the US will default on USD denominated debt, but most institutions who are capable of buying trillions of dollars know better than that

EU/UK starts a fire sale of the 2+ trillion in treasuries that they hold

But surely even the extraordinarily incompetent EU+UK leaders know better than that

[–] Biddles@hexbear.net 1 points 2 weeks ago

But surely even the extraordinarily incompetent EU+UK leaders know better than that

I agree, but we're talking about the hypothetical where they do that

[–] Biddles@hexbear.net 1 points 2 weeks ago

By unscheduled, I mean outside of the normal schedule from which the Fed reinvests the principal of maturing securities

[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 9 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

Worst case scenario, Fed can open a window where they will buy all the treasuries at a fixed price targeting a certain yield. Markets will arbitrage it keeping yields near the target.

Australia did it during COVID, not because of any sell-offs but to lower long term yields to near short term ones.

In the gold standard era, doing so would result in everyone holding Dollars which they could convert to Gold (at least foreigners could). This would drain gold reserves and they would actually have to try borrow gold from the market and take away convertible currency at higher and higher yields until markets won't give you anything regardless of yield (see Greece).

That is not a binding constraint under float. Hence why bond issuance for fiscal policy is no longer needed. It has stopped being the price Govt pays to market to get them to hold your bonds over convertible cash. It is now simply a free money asset.

The idea of QE causing inflation comes from a very trickle down idea supply creating demand. The idea that if you just give reserves to bank by doing QE (an asset swap), lending will somehow rise. That's not the case, banks lend to whoever they see as profitable within their risk appetite, they won't lend because Gov swapped their bonds for reserves. Businesses and individuals won't take loans if their own balance sheets are squeezed. Banks just end up holding excess reserves and lending just as they did before. The only effect it does have is by lowering long term rates. I am not suggesting lowering rates, I am saying they will do YCC like bond buying. The Fed then sets the curve just as they set Fed funds rate.