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House has to research and pass articles of impeachment
Senate has to hold a trial and convict
It doesn't make it through both; nothing happens.
Senate by the numbers is 53:45:2 Republican:Democrat:Independent.
None of the republicans has so much as mentioned they'd be on board with it.
As seen in many troubling votes, some percentage of our Democrats in both the House and the Senate are probably not playing for the team they say they are.
So, let's say the House decides to impeach to make a point, even though they know they have no chance of changing the outcome. There will be retribution. We have nazi slogans on podiums and Proud Boys policing the streets. On November 20th, the president called for the execution of democratic law makers five months after the democratic leader in Minnesota was executed in June in a politically motivated execution. I don't love it, but I understand their apprehension; they're not that brave.
So we wait until midterms (assuming the president doesn't manage to start a war to avoid them), where there's a good chance the senate will lose enough seats and any questionable democrats get displaced by at least centrists.
Then impeachments will happen and probably can succeed.
even if he starts a war, he can't avoid the midterms. The president has no authority over elections, the states have that authority, overseen by congress. And if states don't elect new congressmen and congresswomen and senators, then when the currently elected people have their terms end, then the states will not be able to just keep them in position, when their term ends they are out per the constitution, and won't have a representative until a special election is performed.
Also... I distinctly remember something from my history classes about how Americans react to being taxed without representation... Or at least they did in Boston in the 1773.
We're using the constitution as toilet paper at the moment. He's not following laws now, why would he start?
If he says we're not going to do it, and the scotus says he's right and half of congress is fine with it, it'll be a problem
I could also see a condition where the votes are "under the protection" of ICE and it comes out as a landslide victory.
I can see them try to place it "under the protection" but the states need to have a chain of custody for every vote, and whoever signed that custody chain is responsible for it. I dealt with this in the Army as an MP. And it would require the state to be complicit as well and I don't think most states want to just hand over all their authority to the federal government and turn themselves into puppets. But we will see...
I'm less worried about a chain of custody as I am with them simply using ICE thugs to scare people away from the polling places.
Not everywhere in the country, but they'll try to use them "for security" in blue, multicultural cities and that'll fuck up the vote.
That's my guess.
Hope is all I've got. Have a family to look after
Me too