A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.
Image is of a Russian missile impacting Ukraine.
As we rapidly approach the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the Ukraine War (an anniversary I absolutely did not expect would occur while the two sides were still in combat), we have seen Russia turn to a new strategy, starting late last year but intensifying in December and now January.
Russia seems intent to disconnect Ukrainian cities from the electrical grid by focussing bombing on thermal, gas, and hydro stations, causing major power blackouts across the country. Russia is also bombing substations relatively close to Ukraine's three nuclear power plants (Zaporzhye, the fourth, remains under Russia control), studiously avoiding hitting the premises of the NPPs themselves for obvious reasons. Even if they're far away from the NPPs, striking the substations does have risks, because if the nuclear reactors aren't shut off before the substations are bombed, there is a possibility that there will be insufficient backup power to prevent a meltdown - hence why Russia hasn't really attempted to do this for four years.
Most of the electricity generated in Ukraine comes from the nuclear power plants, both because of the infrastructure they had initially (Ukraine was 7th in the world in nuclear electricity generation before the war) and because Russia has bombed most non-nuclear power stations and substations already. Over the last couple weeks, we have seen Ukrainian media fly into a frenzy about long-lasting blackouts, especially in the middle of winter. After the Zionist entity destroyed virtually all civilian infrastructure in Gaza while the West cheered on, they now appear to have changed their mind on whether such strikes are an effective and humanitarian option to subject millions of people to.
Regardless of whether you personally believe these Russian strikes are justified (I'm pretty iffy myself), it must be stressed that Ukraine has been bombing Russian tankers and oil refineries and power stations for a long time now, so in a sense, this is a retaliation. It's also remarkable, compared to Western wars, that Ukraine was even still allowed to possess a functioning electrical grid for nearly four years into a war of this magnitude. That all being said, while Ukrainian strikes have been somewhat but not overly impactful on the Russian oil sector, the response is clearly very asymmetrical: Ukraine's power grid is, according to Ukrainian energy corporations, now 70% degraded and is virtually impossible to now repair, and blackouts can last most of the day.
For everybody's sake, I hope a ceasefire and peace deal will be reached soon. But after four years of seeing opportunities for an end to this war squandered over and over, I'm not holding my breath.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Lots of US military movements over the past 24 hours in the build-up against Iran.
I'll give a quick summary now and add sources later
Weather has improved and C-17 Globemaster III transport/airlift aircraft have begun transferring presumably air defence equipment again, from Fort Hood and some from Fort Bliss, both in Texas, United States. Fort Hood is home to 2x THAAD batteries and 3x PATRIOT battalions. Fort Bliss is home to 3x PATRIOT battalions, 1x headquarters PATRIOT battalion, 3x THAAD batteries and an IBCS unit.
US tactical fighters are on the move, the 6x EA-18G Growlers that moved from Puerto Rico yesterday are currently crossing the Atlantic, along with 12x F-35As from the Vermont Air National Guard currently deployed to Puerto Rico, they're going straight over the Atlantic too. This is a squadron that specialises in the suppression of air defences, and has been involved in previous airstrikes on Iran and Venezuela.
Looking at US assets forward deployed, they've essentially turned their air base in Jordan into an aircraft carrier, with similar levels of firepower and force structure, and incoming defences. Also allows attacks from two different directions. Likely because the US cannot deploy another aircraft carrier now with the needed firepower, the USS Gerald Ford doesn't have F-35s and EA-18Gs with NGJ pods. The USS George Washington is in Japan.
USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, tactical fighters:
US tactical fighters forward deployed to Jordan in the last few weeks:
Additional US airpower in the Middle East region (they arrived months ago):
That would be around 130 tactical fighters currently ready or crossing the Atlantic ocean. With a sizeable amount of specialised suppression and destruction of enemy air defences (SEAD/DEAD) units available, 24x F-35s and 12x EA-18G with NGJ pods.
Source, that covers everything in the original tweet, quote tweet and replies
In addition to all this, 2x B-52H Stratofortress bombers are currently over the Pacific, they departed Fairchild AFB earlier this morning. The US often deploys bombers to the Pacific when escalating military activity in other parts of the world.
Source
Iran, fucking idiots, start to mine the straight of hormuz
Do you think Iran has regained any of it's AD capabilities since the last round of bombings? Any S300 batteries left?
They probably rebuilt what they could domestically. There were images of new Sevom Khordad (Iranian Buk M2/SA-17 Grizzly equivalent) TELARs in forest camouflage going around. As for S-300PMU-2/SA-20, they'd need new fire control radars from Russia, otherwise they have to guide the missiles with Iranian fire control radars and systems. There are videos of such tests. As for Bavar 373, the domestically produced Iranian S-300P/HQ-9 equivalent, I know they lost at least one fire control radar last time round to an anti tank guided missile by an Israeli infiltration unit, but I don't know of much else. There is Bavar 373-II, an upgraded system that incorporates some of the ideas used in the S-300V/SA-23, but I think there's only one system of that latest version. There are rumours of Russian supplied S-400/SA-21 and Chinese HQ-9, but just rumours.
God help the people of Iran
Al Jazeera was reporting the Abraham Lincoln in the gulf itself, is this true?
Not sure, last it was spotted was around Oman, given the position of Iranian reconnaissance drones and US supply flights
according to the latest info ive seen its off the coast of oman
Crazy to think that the Lincoln carrier group by itself can pretty much wipe out my country's armed forces in their entirety. It's really disheartening to see that the Great Satan remains a force to be reckoned with, regardless of how it weakens with each day.
Wouldn't say a country's military, you need a lot of mass for that. Look at the number of fighters involved in the Gulf War for example, way, way more than a single aircraft carrier can carry. But any air defence network outside of China and Russia, the firepower is there to suppress it if the aircraft carrier's air wing has F-35Cs and EA-18Gs with NGJ pods. Some US carriers do, some do not.
Is it similar to the 12 day war buildup? More? Less?
For comparison, these were forward deployed for the June strikes:
And 4x B-52 Stratofortress bombers.
It must be mentioned though that 48x of those F-18s and the 6x EA-18Gs with TJS pods probably didn't participate much in June, that was on the Nimitz aircraft carrier that surged towards Iran late on as supplementary forces for follow up strikes that never happened. The B-52s likely didn't participate either. The B-2 bombers came from the continental USA and weren't forward deployed.
Getting closer now. Not quite the same yet.