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Chance of El Niño forming in Pacific Ocean may push global temperatures to record highs in 2027 (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 3 weeks ago by Powderhorn@beehaw.org to c/environment@beehaw.org

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Weather agencies and climate scientists have pointed to the possibility of an El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean later this year – a phenomenon that could push global temperatures to all-time record highs in 2027.

Both the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have said some climate models are forecasting an El Niño but both cautioned those results came with uncertainties.

Experts told the Guardian it was too early to be confident, but there were signals in the spread of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that suggested an El Niño could form in 2026.

The cycle of ocean temperatures in the Pacific – known as the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) – is linked with extreme climate events around the world.

When warmer-than-average waters gather in the east of the equatorial Pacific and extend to the coast of the American continent, this is known as an El Niño and tends to give global temperatures a boost and, in Australia, can be linked to drier and hotter conditions.

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[–] RivverRavven@beehaw.org 1 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Please god, no. Forest fires have burned thousands of hectares and towns around us, but we've so far escaped the flames, even though we've had plenty of smoke and ash.

If it's another hot, dry summer, I can't see us escaping the flames anymore...

[–] Quexotic@beehaw.org 1 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Do you have enough time to prepare?

[–] RivverRavven@beehaw.org 1 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

We'll be much better prepared this time. A mobile trailer has been bought for use by police and town government, a full evacuation plan including for the elderly and disabled, an alert system has been put into effect, everybody in town will have "go bags" and valuables by their front door, and a lot of fire breaks were created last Fall.

I feel much more confident this time around. But still, the very real possibility of losing our home is terrifying, no matter how prepared we are.

[–] Quexotic@beehaw.org 1 points 2 weeks ago

That's good to hear. Don't go counting on FEMA to help, though. They've had 33% of their staff eliminated and every expenditure above something like 100k must be personally approved by crusty gnome.