this post was submitted on 27 Feb 2026
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This entire Simplicus piece, is as usual, pure fiction and will age very badly, like everything he's written about Venezuela for instance. For example, this is what he wrote on Venezuela:
The reality was quite different. The US captured Maduro within a few hours, if that.
He's quoting information/disinfo warfare articles from US media as if they're the truth, zero critical examination of the claims, the leaks or motivations. The US has flown over 300 cargo flights of massive C-17 and C-5 strategic airlifters to the Middle East to deliver munitions and air defence assets, and has forward deployed 300 tactical fighter aircraft to bases in the Middle East, and some in the UK currently that will shortly make the trip over. The US has more than enough forces for a sustained bombing campaign if the choice is made. On stealth aircraft alone, there are 11 F-22s in Israel, 30 F-35As in Jordan, 12 F-35Cs on the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, and 12 F-35As and 13 F-22s in the UK busy transiting to the Middle East. That is a massive force of stealth planes. Israel has 48 F-35Is themselves. A total force of 124 stealth fighters is available..Never in history have so many stealth aircraft been available for a military operation, it's complete overkill vs Iran. Only 59 F-117s were ever built. And modern stealth planes are a lot more capable than the F-117, which didn't even have a functional radio during combat.
Just one look at the numbers and you can tell a lot of these articles by politico or whoever are just making stuff up. Information warfare.
Munitions cornern is much more real for air defence against ballistic missiles than offensive weapons. The US has plenty of SDBs, JDAMs and Paveway bombs to use in Iran. Stocks of SM-3, SM-6, PATRIOT PAC 3 MSE, and THAAD Talon for ballistic missile defence are significantly more critical and depleted. But, and this is very important for US strategic thinking and sequencing, if Iran's level of ballistic missile development increases, and they start cranking out ballistic missiles in large numbers, that puts US interceptor stocks in an even worse scenario than they are now, if no action is taken against Iran's ballistic missile programme. That is what US warplanners will be thinking about. Today Iran might have 1000 long range ballistic missiles for instance, in five years they may have 10 000. There is no way that just "playing defence" can deal with that. Today air defences in the region may cope reasonably well when dealing with a volley of ballistic missiles from Iran, in 5 years they won't be able to. The window for action is narrow
Is this person from another planet or something? They've been living under a rock their whole life? If there is one thing I would say literally everyone on earth understands about Trump is that he isn't afraid to blunder whatsoever.
For anyone who hasn't seen this, these flights are mostly visible on ADSB tracking sites. For at least the past 3 weeks there has been an endless train of flights up the east coast, across the Atlantic and into Europe. Most of these land in Germany, some in the UK. The second leg of the journey is south and east across Europe, with the ADSB signal turning off around Turkey or the Aegean Sea. The return flights take roughly the same path.
Occasionally someone leaves their ADSB on too long, the ultimate destinations appear to be in Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and possibly Iraq. Two AWACS planes went over a while back and at least one has resurfaced in Turkey.
The UK has their own flights going in and out of Cyprus. Some additional smaller amount US activity seems to be around the mouth of the Mediterranean in Spain.
There are 6 AWACS aircraft in Saudi Arabia currently from the US Air Force, the one in Turkey is seperate from that, it's a NATO owned plane.
I don't think that the assessment about Venezuela was wrong at all. The reason they went for a kidnapping rather than trying to actually occupy it or get embroiled in a protracted invasion is because they know it would have been a disaster. The kidnapping was an easy PR win but it changed nothing in terms of the Bolivarian socialist path that Venezuela is on.
Easy to do when Maduro made no secret of where he was at any time and the fact that he chose not to hide. He remained out in the public eye showing that he was not afraid. He kept the Venezuelan military in a peacetime posture, and constantly emphasized in speeches that he wanted nothing but peace.
I wouldn't be surprised if he gave explicit orders to the military to not engage against a US incursion. Whatever the case, it is clear that a strategic choice was made by the Venezuelan government to not give the US any possible pretext of "responding to Venezuelan aggression".
The US has come out of this looking like criminal violators of international law for all in the world to see, with an unjustifiable act of aggression against a peaceful country. This was not a win for the US. Such rogue acts only accelerate the transition to multipolarity.
Anyway the comparison with Venezuela is asinine because Iran's military is on an entirely different footing and on an entirely different level.
Yeah, for a couple of weeks. Then they will sue for peace again just like last time, especially once Iran starts hitting their bases in the middle east and shutting down the Persian Gulf. No matter how many forces the US amasses it is still a bluff. Iran can outlast them.
The US/Israel are betting on an internal revolt following some kind of "decapitation strike" to overthrow the government because they buy their own propaganda. They fundamentally underestimate the domestic support of the Iranian government.
So are the numbers you are quoting. The build-up itself is a form of psychological warfare. So is overstating US capabilities and spreading false narratives about the 12-day war. It is meant to intimidate Iran and its supporters by portraying the US/Israel as invincible with their "stealth wunderwaffen". It hasn't worked and it won't work. There are no wonder weapons.
The window of action has already passed. Iran has more than enough capabilities to survive and embroil the US in an unwinnable war that would devastate the global economy. Trump wants a quick PR win, that is the lesson that you should learn from Venezuela.
The build-up is part of his typical brutish "negotiating tactics" of applying pressure and intimidating the other side into making a deal. Just like he did with the tariffs, which were also a bluff, and one that China called just like Iran is calling this bluff.
Changed nothing? Seems to have changed a bit. Chavez and Maduro would never have cut oil to Cuba. Venezuela doing that now makes it undeniable that Venezuela is more pliable to US demands now than before, at the very least.
Of course they would have, if the US imposed a blockade and criminally hijacked tankers off the high seas. What are they supposed to do, pick a fight with the US Navy? It's not a question of will, it's a question of capabilities. Material reality. Maduro does not have superpowers to magically teleport oil to Cuba and neither did Chavez. I haven't seen the interim administration of Venezuela do anything so far that Maduro or Chavez wouldn't have done in the same circumstances.
It's obviously not ideal, but you have to play the hand you are dealt. For now Venezuela and Cuba are both practicing strategic patience. They are betting they can outlast whatever the US can throw at them in the short term.
Because everyone can see that, in the long term, the US is in decline.
I see what you're saying, but the USA had already seized tankers and they didn't stop until after Maduro was kidnapped