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I don't think that the assessment about Venezuela was wrong at all. The reason they went for a kidnapping rather than trying to actually occupy it or get embroiled in a protracted invasion is because they know it would have been a disaster. The kidnapping was an easy PR win but it changed nothing in terms of the Bolivarian socialist path that Venezuela is on.

The US captured Maduro within a few hours, if that.

Easy to do when Maduro made no secret of where he was at any time and the fact that he chose not to hide. He remained out in the public eye showing that he was not afraid. He kept the Venezuelan military in a peacetime posture, and constantly emphasized in speeches that he wanted nothing but peace.

I wouldn't be surprised if he gave explicit orders to the military to not engage against a US incursion. Whatever the case, it is clear that a strategic choice was made by the Venezuelan government to not give the US any possible pretext of "responding to Venezuelan aggression".

The US has come out of this looking like criminal violators of international law for all in the world to see, with an unjustifiable act of aggression against a peaceful country. This was not a win for the US. Such rogue acts only accelerate the transition to multipolarity.

Anyway the comparison with Venezuela is asinine because Iran's military is on an entirely different footing and on an entirely different level.

The US has more than enough forces for a sustained bombing campaign if the choice is made.

Yeah, for a couple of weeks. Then they will sue for peace again just like last time, especially once Iran starts hitting their bases in the middle east and shutting down the Persian Gulf. No matter how many forces the US amasses it is still a bluff. Iran can outlast them.

The US/Israel are betting on an internal revolt following some kind of "decapitation strike" to overthrow the government because they buy their own propaganda. They fundamentally underestimate the domestic support of the Iranian government.

Just one look at the numbers and you can tell a lot of these articles by politico or whoever are just making stuff up. Information warfare.

So are the numbers you are quoting. The build-up itself is a form of psychological warfare. So is overstating US capabilities and spreading false narratives about the 12-day war. It is meant to intimidate Iran and its supporters by portraying the US/Israel as invincible with their "stealth wunderwaffen". It hasn't worked and it won't work. There are no wonder weapons.

The window for action is narrow.

The window of action has already passed. Iran has more than enough capabilities to survive and embroil the US in an unwinnable war that would devastate the global economy. Trump wants a quick PR win, that is the lesson that you should learn from Venezuela.

The build-up is part of his typical brutish "negotiating tactics" of applying pressure and intimidating the other side into making a deal. Just like he did with the tariffs, which were also a bluff, and one that China called just like Iran is calling this bluff.