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I noticed it too with the upvotes on my content. A few weeks ago my predictions when I hit a certain mark of upvotes were pretty accurate, but now the amount of upvotes in the first 12h dropped notably.
Your mention of spring sound like a plausible reasoning to me.
I used to discuss it with the people on c/fedigrow because it would bum me out. I thought I had upset people somehow.
They reminded me of things like spring break from school and people doing family things and all that. I don't have kids or close family, so a lot of that kind of thing slips my mind that others have to do things in relation to that.
And once you see they do eventually come back, you get used to it.
I would feel the same as you if I were the only poster in the communities. But as there is at least one other (MentalEdge) and the dent is similar, I don't need to worry (about my quality; but still if the community as a whole is running fine if they don't come back after a while).