this post was submitted on 28 Mar 2026
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[–] riskable@programming.dev 19 points 1 day ago (4 children)

Either a lot more tools got a lot better,

That's what it was. Even the free, open source models are vastly superior to the best of the best from just a year ago.

People got into their heads that AI is shit when it was shit and decided at that moment that it was going to be stuck in that state forever. They forget that AI is just software and software usually gets better over time. Especially open source software which is what all the big AI vendors are building their tools on top of.

We're still in the infancy of generative AI.

[–] frongt@lemmy.zip 27 points 1 day ago

I tried one for the first time yesterday. It was mediocre at best. Certainly not production code. It would take just as much effort to refine it as it would to just write it in the first place.

[–] XLE@piefed.social 11 points 1 day ago (2 children)

If you read AI critics, you will see people presenting solid financial evidence of the failure of AI companies to do what they promised. Remember Sam Altman promised AGI in 2025? I certainly do, and now so do you.

Do you have any concrete evidence that this financial flop will turn around before it runs out of money?

[–] riskable@programming.dev 7 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

Assume all the big AI firms die: Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Meta. Poof! They're gone!

Here would be my reaction: "So anyway... have you tried GLM-7? It's amazing! Also, there's a new workflow in ComfyUI I've been using that works great to generate..."

Generative AI is here to stay. You don't need a trillion dollars worth of data centers for progress to continue. That's just billionaires living in an AGI fantasy land.

[–] XLE@piefed.social 1 points 15 hours ago (2 children)

I'm sick and tired of AI fans making statements like

Generative AI is here to stay

without evidence.

Citation needed.

[–] riskable@programming.dev 5 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Um... Where would it go? I've got about 30 models on my machine right now and I download new ones to try out all the time.

Are you suggesting that they'd all just magically disappear one day‽

[–] XLE@piefed.social -1 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

Where do you think the "new ones" are coming from?

[–] riskable@programming.dev 3 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

Same places as usual: Academia and open source foundations.

That's where 99% of all advancements in AI come from. You don't actually think Big AI is paying as many people to do computer science and mathematics research as all the universities in the world (with computer science programs)?

It's the same shit as always: Big companies commercialize advancements and discoveries made by scientist and researchers from academia (mostly) and give almost nothing back.

Big AI has partnerships with tons of schools and if it weren't for that, they wouldn't be advancing the technology as fast as they are. In fact, the only reason why many of these discoveries are made public at all is because of the agreements with the schools that require the discoveries/papers be published (so their school, professors, researchers, and students can get credit).

Like I was saying before: You don't need a trillion dollars in data centers to do this stuff. Almost all the GPUs and special chips being used (and preordered, sigh) by Big AI are being used to serve their customers (at great expense). Not for training.

Training used to be expensive but so many advancements have been made this is no longer the case. Instead, most of the resources being used in "AI data centers" (and research) is all about making inference more efficient. That's the step that comes after you give an AI a prompt.

Training a super modern AI model can be done with a university's data center or a few hundred thousand to a few million dollars of rented GPUs/compute. It doesn't even take that long!

Generative AI improves at a ridiculously fast rate. In nearly all the ways you could think of: Training, inference (e.g. figuring out user intent), knowledge, understanding, and weirder, fluffier stuff like "creativity" (the benchmarks of which are dubious, BTW).

[–] XLE@piefed.social -1 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago) (1 children)

Before we spin into a tangent about theory and "what ifs" etc, care to link me to all these great models from academics and open-source institutions?

Because right now, the only companies I see making advancements in "AI" are burning through obscene amounts of cash, with no end in sight.

And there is no evidence the cost of inference is going down, and even Anthropic admits training will continue burning resources.

[–] XLE@piefed.social 1 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (1 children)

@ikidd@lemmy.world @ingeanus@ttrpg.network do you two have a source for these supposed great models?

[–] ikidd@lemmy.world 1 points 41 minutes ago

What inclined you to @ me into this? As far as I can see, I haven't even replied in this thread, and you just seem like you're on the warpath with anyone that wants to defend using LLMs. If Greg KH thinks it's coming into it's own, you might want to heed him.

[–] unpossum@sh.itjust.works -2 points 14 hours ago (1 children)
[–] XLE@piefed.social 2 points 13 hours ago

Oh wow, comparing a thing to a completely different thing without demonstrating the comparison is valid.

Exactly the non-evidence I expected.

[–] freeman@sh.itjust.works 12 points 21 hours ago

Whether AI can reliably detect issues and generate working code is a whole different thing from CEO's delusions and hyperbole to game the market. Their financial success is also irrelevant, in fact it's better if the sub/token model fails and we are left with locally ran models.

[–] 4am@lemmy.zip 3 points 1 day ago

They should all be destroyed

[–] AliasAKA@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Traditional software was developed by humans as an artifact that, and to the degree that humans improved the software for some task, got better, but it was not guaranteed. Windows 11 is proof of that, and there are a laundry list of regressions and bugs introduced into software developed by humans. I acknowledge you say usually and especially for open source — I lukewarm agree with that statement but disagree that large LLMs or other generative models will follow this trend, and merely want to point out that software usually introduces bugs as it’s developed, which are hopefully fixed by people who can reason over the code.

Which brings us to AI models, and really they should just be called transformer models; they are statistical tensor product machines. They are not software in a traditional sense. They are trained to match their training input in a statistical sense. If the input data is corrupted, the model will actually get worse over time, not better. If the data is biased, it will get worse over time, not better. With the amount of slop generated on the web, it is extraordinarily hard to denoise and decide what’s good data and what’s bad data that shouldn’t be used for training. Which means the scaling we’ve seen with increased data will not necessarily hold. And there’s not a clear indication that scaling the model size, which is largely already impractical, is having some synergistic or emergent effect as hoped and hyped.

Also, we’re really not in the infancy of AI. Maybe the infancy of widespread hype for it, but the idea of using tensor products for statistical learning algorithms goes back at least as far as Smolensky, maybe before, and that was what, 1990?

We are in the infancy of I’d say quantum style compute, so we really don’t have much to draw on beyond theoretical models.

Generative LLM models have largely plateaued in my opinion.

[–] Peruvian_Skies@sh.itjust.works 3 points 17 hours ago

We're in the infancy of AI in the sense that widespread use, testing and properly-funded development of these technologies only began a few years ago when massively parallelized processing became affordable enough, even though the concepts are older. You could say we're in the infancy of practical AI, not theoretical.