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The U.S. Army War College* has released a brief overview of "Lessons from the War in Ukraine".
(press.armywarcollege.edu)
You just gotta love how US military say everything openly and in their reports. In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.
Thesis:
- military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
- The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
- In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.
In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.
- The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
- every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031**
- IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
- These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.
- the 70's concept of contract forces is outdated and does not fit the current operational environment.
- The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.
So they project this level of losses for US Armed Forces based on the Ukraine war, so considering USAF being better armed, this means they estimate (or even know) the AFU losses are much higher? Isn't that even higher than Russian estimations of AFU losses?
The alternate interpretation is that both countries are holding back their True Strength™ of Even More Deadly Weapons™
Caught!